Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Prediction: Chiefs 25, Raiders 16 (market-implied). The market gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 76% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Raiders @ Chiefs, on one screen.

Raiders16.0win 24%
Market-implied score
Chiefs24.5win 76%
SpreadKC -8.5
Total40.5
Moneyline+300 / -380
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Raiders vs Chiefs prediction

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs an 8.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders, with the game total at 40.5.

Moneylines sit at +300 for Las Vegas Raiders and -380 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 76% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16 for Las Vegas Raiders and 24.5 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Las Vegas Raiders — Kirk Cousins (QB) at 209 passing yards and 3 rushing yards, Ashton Jeanty (RB) at 43 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 234 passing yards and 18 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 85 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Raiders at Chiefs — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -8.5
Total40.5
Moneyline (LV / KC)+300 / -380
KC implied win probability76%
Implied team totals (LV — KC)16.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Raiders and Chiefs this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Las Vegas Raiders4-56-37-226.429.87
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.97

Raiders' last 3 games: L 17-38 @ SF · W 38-33 @ NYJ · L 21-35 vs LA.

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Player projections

Las Vegas Raiders · 16.0 market-implied pts
Kirk Cousins (QB) — 209 pass yds · 3 rush yds
Ashton Jeanty (RB) — 43 rush yds · 27 rec yds
Brock Bowers (TE) — 1 rush yds · 55 rec yds
Kansas City Chiefs · 24.5 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 234 pass yds · 18 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 85 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Raiders @ Chiefs, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Raiders 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule