Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 8.5-point favourite over Las Vegas Raiders, with the game total at 40.5.

Moneylines sit at +300 for Las Vegas Raiders and -380 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 76% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16 for Las Vegas Raiders and 24.5 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Las Vegas Raiders — Kirk Cousins (QB) at 183 passing yards and 2 rushing yards, Ashton Jeanty (RB) at 67 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 236 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Raiders at Chiefs — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -8.5
Total40.5
Moneyline (LV / KC)+300 / -380
KC implied win probability76%
Implied team totals (LV — KC)16.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Las Vegas Raiders · 16.0 proj pts
Kirk Cousins (QB) — 183 pass yds · 2 rush yds
Ashton Jeanty (RB) — 67 rush yds · 29 rec yds
Brock Bowers (TE) — 1 rush yds · 49 rec yds
Kansas City Chiefs · 24.5 proj pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 236 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 82 rush yds · 33 rec yds
Travis Kelce (TE) — 53 rec yds · 4.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule