New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Monday, December 21, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21 (market-implied). The market gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 59% chance to win. · Updated

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Patriots21.4win 41%
Market-implied score
Chiefs24.1win 59%
SpreadKC -2.75
Total45.5
Moneyline+130 / -159
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Patriots vs Chiefs prediction

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 2.75-point favorite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at +130 for New England Patriots and -159 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 59% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.4 for New England Patriots and 24.1 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 238 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 224 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 76 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Monday, December 21, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, New England Patriots take the extra rest, 11 days to 8.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Patriots at Chiefs — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -2.75
Total45.5
Moneyline (NE / KC)+130 / -159
KC implied win probability59%
Implied team totals (NE — KC)21.4 — 24.1

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Patriots and Chiefs this season

Games before Week 15. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.011
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.98

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 21.4 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 238 pass yds · 29 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 47 rush yds · 20 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.4 rec
Kansas City Chiefs · 24.1 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 224 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 76 rush yds · 24 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 51 rec yds · 4.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Patriots @ Chiefs, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule