Monday, December 21, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 2.5-point favourite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at +120 for New England Patriots and -142 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 56% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for New England Patriots and 24 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 217 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 226 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 77 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Monday, December 21, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, New England Patriots take the extra rest, 11 days to 8.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -2.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (NE / KC) | +120 / -142 |
| KC implied win probability | 56% |
| Implied team totals (NE — KC) | 21.5 — 24.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.