Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Cardinals 14 (market-implied). The market gives the Kansas City Chiefs an 87% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Cardinals @ Chiefs, on one screen.

Cardinals13.8win 13%
Market-implied score
Chiefs27.8win 87%
SpreadKC -14
Total41.5
Moneyline+650 / -1054
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Cardinals vs Chiefs prediction

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 14-point favorite over Arizona Cardinals, with the game total at 41.5.

Moneylines sit at +650 for Arizona Cardinals and -1054 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 87% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 13.8 for Arizona Cardinals and 27.8 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The spread has moved from KC -13.5 to KC -14 since it opened and the total has moved from 42 to 41.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Arizona Cardinals — Gardner Minshew (QB) at 245 passing yards and 6 rushing yards, Trey McBride (TE) at 79 receiving yards and 7.7 catches; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 235 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 84 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Cardinals at Chiefs — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -14 (open KC -13.5)
Total41.5 (open 42)
Moneyline (ARI / KC)+650 / -1054
KC implied win probability87%
Implied team totals (ARI — KC)13.8 — 27.8

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Cardinals and Chiefs this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Arizona Cardinals3-64-55-419.828.37
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.97

Cardinals' last 3 games: L 3-17 @ SEA · W 33-30 @ DAL · L 16-30 vs DEN.

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Player projections

Arizona Cardinals · 13.8 market-implied pts
Gardner Minshew (QB) — 245 pass yds · 6 rush yds
Trey McBride (TE) — 79 rec yds · 7.7 rec
Tyler Allgeier (RB) — 56 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Kansas City Chiefs · 27.8 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 235 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 84 rush yds · 24 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 53 rec yds · 4.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Cardinals @ Chiefs, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Cardinals @ Chiefs matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 33°F, wind 17 mph from the NNW, 6% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Cardinals 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule