Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 11.5-point favourite over Arizona Cardinals, with the game total at 44.5.
Moneylines sit at +440 for Arizona Cardinals and -600 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 82% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.5 for Arizona Cardinals and 28 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Arizona Cardinals — Jacoby Brissett (QB) at 208 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Trey McBride (TE) at 69 receiving yards and 6.7 catches; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 236 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 86 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -11.5 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Moneyline (ARI / KC) | +440 / -600 |
| KC implied win probability | 82% |
| Implied team totals (ARI — KC) | 16.5 — 28.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.