Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 11.5-point favourite over Arizona Cardinals, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at +440 for Arizona Cardinals and -600 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 82% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.5 for Arizona Cardinals and 28 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Arizona Cardinals — Jacoby Brissett (QB) at 208 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Trey McBride (TE) at 69 receiving yards and 6.7 catches; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 236 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 86 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Cardinals at Chiefs — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -11.5
Total44.5
Moneyline (ARI / KC)+440 / -600
KC implied win probability82%
Implied team totals (ARI — KC)16.5 — 28.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Arizona Cardinals · 16.5 proj pts
Jacoby Brissett (QB) — 208 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Trey McBride (TE) — 69 rec yds · 6.7 rec
Jeremiyah Love (RB) — 45 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Kansas City Chiefs · 28.0 proj pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 236 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 86 rush yds · 35 rec yds
Travis Kelce (TE) — 51 rec yds · 4.8 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule