Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Monday, November 23, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Prediction: Bengals 28, Commanders 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 65% chance to win. · Updated

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Bengals27.8win 65%
Market-implied score
Commanders23.8win 35%
SpreadCIN -4
Total51.5
Moneyline-207 / +171
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bengals vs Commanders prediction

The market makes Cincinnati Bengals a 4-point favorite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 51.5.

Moneylines sit at -207 for Cincinnati Bengals and +171 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 35% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27.8 for Cincinnati Bengals and 23.8 for Washington Commanders.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow (QB) at 282 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Ja'Marr Chase (WR) at 97 receiving yards and 7.3 catches; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 238 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Monday, November 23, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium, Washington Commanders take the extra rest, 11 days to 8.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bengals at Commanders — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCIN -4
Total51.5
Moneyline (CIN / WAS)-207 / +171
WAS implied win probability35%
Implied team totals (CIN — WAS)27.8 — 23.8

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bengals and Commanders this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Cincinnati Bengals6-24-3-15-330.021.98
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.311

Bengals' last 3 games: W 34-17 @ ATL · W 43-36 vs TEN · W 35-13 @ BAL.

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Player projections

Cincinnati Bengals · 27.8 market-implied pts
Joe Burrow (QB) — 282 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) — 97 rec yds · 7.3 rec
Chase Brown (RB) — 56 rush yds · 27 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 23.8 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 238 pass yds · 37 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 46 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 57 rec yds · 4.8 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bengals @ Commanders, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff forecast: 47°F, wind 7 mph from the NNW, 28% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bengals 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule