Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Cincinnati Bengals a 6-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at -270 for Cincinnati Bengals and +220 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 30% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27.8 for Cincinnati Bengals and 21.8 for Miami Dolphins.

The spread has moved from 5.5 to 6 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow (QB) at 245 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Chase Brown (RB) at 68 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 243 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 72 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Bengals at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadCIN -6 (open +5.5)
Total49.5
Moneyline (CIN / MIA)-270 / +220
MIA implied win probability30%
Implied team totals (CIN — MIA)27.8 — 21.8

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Cincinnati Bengals · 27.6 proj pts
Joe Burrow (QB) — 245 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Chase Brown (RB) — 68 rush yds · 26 rec yds
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) — 1 rush yds · 70 rec yds
Miami Dolphins · 21.9 proj pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 243 pass yds · 27 rush yds
De'Von Achane (RB) — 72 rush yds · 32 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 47 rec yds · 3.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

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