Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons — Final Score & Result, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

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Ravens30market had 20.3
Final
Falcons23market had 23.8
SpreadATL -3.5
Total44
Moneyline+152 / -180
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Game preview

The market makes Atlanta Falcons a 3.5-point favorite over Baltimore Ravens, with the game total at 44.

Moneylines sit at +152 for Baltimore Ravens and -180 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 62% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.3 for Baltimore Ravens and 23.8 for Atlanta Falcons.

The spread has moved from BAL -4 to ATL -3.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 47 to 44.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Baltimore Ravens — Tyler Huntley (QB) at 198 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, Derrick Henry (RB) at 86 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 207 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Final: Baltimore Ravens won 30-23; Baltimore Ravens covered the spread (ATL -3.5) and the game went over the 44 total.

From the blog: NFL Week 5 preview: every line, every matchup and where I'm leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Final

BAL 30 — ATL 23

Baltimore Ravens covered the spread (ATL -3.5) and the game went over the 44 total.

Consensus market (closing lines)

Consensus market for Ravens at Falcons — lines as of Sun, 10/11 · 8:20 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadATL -3.5 (open BAL -4)
Total44 (open 47)
Moneyline (BAL / ATL)+152 / -180
ATL implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (BAL — ATL)20.3 — 23.8

Devigged cross-book consensus. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Ravens and Falcons this season

Games before Week 5. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Baltimore Ravens3-11-32-229.024.07
Atlanta Falcons2-22-22-224.023.06

Ravens' last 3 games: W 24-18 vs TEN · W 34-31 @ DAL · L 17-24 vs NO.

Falcons' last 3 games: W 45-24 @ NO · W 35-14 @ GB · L 3-34 vs CAR.

Pre-game injury report

Baltimore Ravens

Inactive: Lamar Jackson (QB), Elijah Sarratt (WR), Aeneas Peebles (DT), Andrew Vorhees (G), Cam Jurgens (C), Trey Hendrickson (LB).

Atlanta Falcons

Inactive: Cooper Rush (QB), Jack Strand (QB), Christian Harris (LB), Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB), Robert Longerbeam (CB), Za'Darius Smith (DE).

Gameday inactives as of Sun, 10/11 · 7:21 PM ET.

Player projections

Baltimore Ravens · 20.3 market-implied pts
Tyler Huntley (QB) — 198 pass yds · 29 rush yds
Derrick Henry (RB) — 86 rush yds · 11 rec yds
Zay Flowers (WR) — 1 rush yds · 70 rec yds
Atlanta Falcons · 23.8 market-implied pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 207 pass yds · 8 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 83 rush yds · 35 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 2 rush yds · 74 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Ravens @ Falcons, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Ravens @ Falcons matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule

Ravens 2026 schedule

Falcons 2026 schedule