Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Baltimore Ravens a 4.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 48.5.
Moneylines sit at -198 for Baltimore Ravens and +164 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 36% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26.5 for Baltimore Ravens and 22 for Atlanta Falcons.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Baltimore Ravens — Lamar Jackson (QB) at 239 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, Derrick Henry (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 214 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 77 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors.
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| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BAL -4.5 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Moneyline (BAL / ATL) | -198 / +164 |
| ATL implied win probability | 36% |
| Implied team totals (BAL — ATL) | 26.5 — 22.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.