Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints — Final Score & Result, NFL Week 4 2026

Monday, October 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Caesars Superdome (indoors)

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Falcons45market had 23.3
Final
Saints24market had 24.3
SpreadNO -1
Total47.5
Moneyline-105 / -114
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Game preview

The market makes New Orleans Saints a 1-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at -105 for Atlanta Falcons and -114 for New Orleans Saints, a devigged 51% win probability for New Orleans Saints; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.3 for Atlanta Falcons and 24.3 for New Orleans Saints.

The spread has moved from NO -2.5 to NO -1 since it opened and the total has moved from 48.5 to 47.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 221 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards; New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 266 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 92 receiving yards and 7.2 catches.

Kickoff is Monday, October 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at Caesars Superdome, indoors, Atlanta Falcons take the extra rest, 11 days to 8.

Final: Atlanta Falcons won 45-24; Atlanta Falcons covered the spread (NO -1) and the game went over the 47.5 total.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Final

ATL 45 — NO 24

Atlanta Falcons covered the spread (NO -1) and the game went over the 47.5 total.

Consensus market (closing lines)

Consensus market for Falcons at Saints — lines as of Mon, 10/5 · 8:15 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNO -1 (open NO -2.5)
Total47.5 (open 48.5)
Moneyline (ATL / NO)-105 / -114
NO implied win probability51%
Implied team totals (ATL — NO)23.3 — 24.3

Devigged cross-book consensus. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Falcons and Saints this season

Games before Week 4. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Atlanta Falcons1-21-21-217.022.711
New Orleans Saints1-22-12-127.027.78

Falcons' last 3 games: W 35-14 @ GB · L 3-34 vs CAR · L 13-20 @ PIT.

Saints' last 3 games: L 27-35 vs LV · W 24-17 @ BAL · L 30-31 @ DET.

Pre-game injury report

Atlanta Falcons

Inactive: Cooper Rush (QB), Jack Strand (QB), Ethan Onianwa (T), Jared Ivey (LB), Robert Longerbeam (CB).

New Orleans Saints

Inactive: Zach Wilson (QB), Anfernee Jennings (LB), Carl Granderson (DE), Christen Miller (DT), Decamerion Richardson (CB), Kaden Elliss (LB).

Gameday inactives as of Mon, 10/5 · 7:20 PM ET.

Player projections

Atlanta Falcons · 23.3 market-implied pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 221 pass yds · 8 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 82 rush yds · 34 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 2 rush yds · 77 rec yds
New Orleans Saints · 24.3 market-implied pts
Tyler Shough (QB) — 266 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Chris Olave (WR) — 92 rec yds · 7.2 rec
Alvin Kamara (RB) — 44 rush yds · 28 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Falcons @ Saints, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Falcons @ Saints matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule

Falcons 2026 schedule

Saints 2026 schedule