Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium
The market makes Green Bay Packers a 1.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at -120 for Green Bay Packers and -102 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 48% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Green Bay Packers and 22 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 254 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 69 receiving yards and 4.7 catches; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 227 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium, Green Bay Packers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | GB -1.5 |
| Total | 45.5 (open 45.75) |
| Moneyline (GB / TB) | -120 / -102 |
| TB implied win probability | 48% |
| Implied team totals (GB — TB) | 23.5 — 22.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.