Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 4 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Green Bay Packers a 1.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at -120 for Green Bay Packers and -102 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 48% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Green Bay Packers and 22 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 254 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 69 receiving yards and 4.7 catches; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 227 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium, Green Bay Packers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Packers at Buccaneers — lines as of Thu, 9/24 · 7:30 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadGB -1.5
Total45.5 (open 45.75)
Moneyline (GB / TB)-120 / -102
TB implied win probability48%
Implied team totals (GB — TB)23.5 — 22.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Green Bay Packers · 23.5 proj pts
Jordan Love (QB) — 254 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Christian Watson (WR) — 69 rec yds · 4.7 rec
Matthew Golden (WR) — 50 rec yds · 3.7 rec
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 22.0 proj pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 227 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 61 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 49 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule