Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome (indoors)

Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Saints 21 (market-implied). The market gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Buccaneers @ Saints, on one screen.

Buccaneers22.5win 53%
Market-implied score
Saints21.0win 47%
SpreadTB -1.5
Total43.5
Moneyline-125 / +105
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Buccaneers vs Saints prediction

The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 1.5-point favorite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at -125 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and +105 for New Orleans Saints, a devigged 47% win probability for New Orleans Saints; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 21 for New Orleans Saints.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 193 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 79 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards; New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 233 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 69 receiving yards and 5.5 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Caesars Superdome, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Buccaneers at Saints — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadTB -1.5
Total43.5
Moneyline (TB / NO)-125 / +105
NO implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (TB — NO)22.5 — 21.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Buccaneers and Saints this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-64-55-422.419.87
New Orleans Saints3-53-55-323.127.07

Buccaneers' last 3 games: L 24-27 @ CHI · W 16-0 vs ATL · W 43-13 @ CAR.

Saints' last 3 games: W 23-22 vs CLE · L 10-16 vs PIT · W 34-27 @ NYG.

Player projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 22.5 market-implied pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 193 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 79 rush yds · 17 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 56 rec yds
New Orleans Saints · 21.0 market-implied pts
Tyler Shough (QB) — 233 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Chris Olave (WR) — 69 rec yds · 5.5 rec
Alvin Kamara (RB) — 37 rush yds · 24 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Buccaneers @ Saints, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Buccaneers @ Saints matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Buccaneers 2026 schedule

Saints 2026 schedule