New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

Prediction: Bills 27, Jets 17 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 79% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Jets @ Bills, on one screen.

Jets16.8win 21%
Market-implied score
Bills26.8win 79%
SpreadBUF -10
Total43.5
Moneyline+360 / -470
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Jets vs Bills prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 10-point favorite over New York Jets, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +360 for New York Jets and -470 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 79% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.8 for New York Jets and 26.8 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 199 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 53 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 231 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 88 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Jets at Bills — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -10
Total43.5
Moneyline (NYJ / BUF)+360 / -470
BUF implied win probability79%
Implied team totals (NYJ — BUF)16.8 — 26.8

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Jets and Bills this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New York Jets2-73-4-24-520.224.87
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.47

Jets' last 3 games: L 12-35 @ KC · L 33-38 vs LV · L 25-28 vs MIA.

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Player projections

New York Jets · 16.8 market-implied pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 199 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 53 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Braelon Allen (RB) — 46 rush yds · 11 rec yds
Buffalo Bills · 26.8 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 231 pass yds · 31 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 88 rush yds · 15 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 47 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Jets @ Bills, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Jets @ Bills matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Jets 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule