Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Prediction: Bills 30, Jets 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 78% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Bills @ Jets, on one screen.

Bills29.5win 78%
Market-implied score
Jets21.5win 22%
SpreadBUF -8
Total51
Moneyline-450 / +341
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Bills vs Jets prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills an 8-point favorite over New York Jets, with the game total at 51.

Moneylines sit at -450 for Buffalo Bills and +341 for New York Jets, a devigged 22% win probability for New York Jets; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 29.5 for Buffalo Bills and 21.5 for New York Jets.

The spread has moved from BUF -7.5 to BUF -8 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 242 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 86 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 209 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 52 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bills at Jets — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -8 (open BUF -7.5)
Total51 (open 50.75)
Moneyline (BUF / NYJ)-450 / +341
NYJ implied win probability22%
Implied team totals (BUF — NYJ)29.5 — 21.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bills and Jets this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.46
New York Jets2-73-4-24-520.224.87

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Jets' last 3 games: L 12-35 @ KC · L 33-38 vs LV · L 25-28 vs MIA.

Player projections

Buffalo Bills · 29.5 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 242 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 86 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 49 rec yds
New York Jets · 21.5 market-implied pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 209 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 52 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Braelon Allen (RB) — 46 rush yds · 12 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bills @ Jets, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Bills @ Jets matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 51°F, wind 6 mph from the NNW, 1% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule

Jets 2026 schedule