NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning

Quick note before you start: I write these fully off the cuff, based on what I'm seeing as I build projections. It's how I talk and how I write, so it's informal by nature. Don't expect a masterpiece.

Written Monday night, updated Tuesday after the trade deadline · lines as of Tue Nov 10, 8:30 PM ET (consensus of books) · team stats are each team's last 4 games (2026 Weeks 1-9, through Monday night)

The Week 9 blog seemed to do pretty well, so it's back for Week 10 with a few changes. The big one: the cards now show each team's last four games instead of the full season, because by now that's what I actually care about. I also said "horrific" a lot less this week, which I take great pride in.

There are a few games I like and a few I don't. I went through every game Monday night, before most props were posted, so these are first looks. Outside of a treacherous Thursday night game, it should be another fantastic week of football.

Where I'm leaning

• Panthers @ Saints: Panthers +2.5 and the moneyline, my favorite spot of the week
• Commanders @ Giants: Giants -2, waiting on the injury report
• Patriots @ Lions: Lions -2.5 and the Lions team total over
• Bills @ Jets: Over 51, slight lean to the Jets +8
• Texans @ Browns: Texans -5
• Jaguars @ Titans: Jaguars -10.5
• Chiefs @ Falcons: Over 45; I liked Chiefs -3 but not -3.5, so it's a play only if 3 comes back
• Dolphins @ Colts: No side, Dolphins props only
• Vikings @ Packers: Packers -3.5, Packers team total over, Vikings team total under
• Rams @ Cardinals: The under and the Cardinals team total under
• Seahawks @ Raiders: Soft lean to the Seahawks (not a play at -6.5) and the under
• 49ers @ Cowboys: 49ers -4 and under 56
• Steelers @ Bengals: Steelers +3.5, the over and the Steelers team total over
• Chargers @ Ravens: Chargers +5

Slate at a glance

• 14 games; Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye.
• Biggest spread: Jaguars -10.5 at Tennessee.
• Highest totals: 49ers @ Cowboys (55.5), Patriots @ Lions and Bills @ Jets (51). Lowest: Chargers @ Ravens and Dolphins @ Colts (38.5).
• Munich: Patriots vs. Lions, Sunday 9:30 AM ET.
• New starters: Jacoby Brissett makes his first start for Baltimore after the trade from Arizona, and rookie Carson Beck is in line to start for the Cardinals with Gardner Minshew (elbow) likely done for the year. Rookie Fernando Mendoza starts for the Raiders after Kirk Cousins was traded to Minnesota.

Who's trending

Net EPA per play (offense minus defense allowed), season to date vs. each team's last 4 games:

• Rising most: Steelers (+0.05 for the season to +0.19), Texans (+0.05 to +0.17), Buccaneers (+0.05 to +0.16), Bears (+0.10 to +0.20).
• Falling most: Ravens (-0.03 to -0.31), Raiders (-0.10 to -0.23), Falcons (-0.08 to -0.20), Vikings (-0.02 to -0.13).

How to read the game cards: Each card shows the spread, total and the score the market implies, then one panel for each team's possessions. The offense is a filled dot and the defense a ring, on one league scale where right is better for the offense. The bright mark is the last 4 games; the faint mark and its tail are the season, so a long tail means a unit has changed. Ranks are out of 32 (1 = best), with arrows when the last 4 moved 3+ spots.

Commanders at Giants

Thu Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

• The line: NYG -2.5, total 41. Market-implied score: NYG 21.8, WAS 19.3.
• Full matchup page: Commanders at Giants

A pretty interesting game in a wide-open NFC East. These two being about even on a neutral field feels right, but for as decent as the Giants have been, I'm still not a believer.

We watched the Commanders let the first meeting slip away in Washington, a 27-27 overtime tie they should have won after some last-minute debacles. They just hung in there against the Rams in a 20-13 loss, and the defense still looks all right: good against the run, questionable against the pass, and a bit more competent than the numbers say.

This is one of the more confusing games on the slate. At quarterback it's clearly Jayden Daniels on pure talent. Outside of that, I'd give the offensive edge to the Giants, with Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely. J.J. McCarthy (hip) looks like he'll play; if it's Jameis Winston instead, I only have that as about a 1-point difference.

The more I look at the numbers, the more it feels like a clear-cut Giants minus. Washington keeps getting chance after chance to be competent and just hasn't been. I want to keep believing in them, but maybe they're just not the team, and maybe McCarthy and the Giants are the team of destiny. If this gets out to 3, I'd take a look at Washington +3. The weather looks fine.

Props I'm looking at

• Stefon Diggs: Receiving yards over 40.5 feels too light.
• Malik Nabers: Over 67.5 feels way too light.
• Cam Skattebo: He's expected back from his hamstring injury. I'd pencil him in for 15 carries with his rushing line around 50, and you're telling me he averages barely 3 yards a carry? I struggle with that. Still, the Giants backfield is always a mess, so the receivers are the cleaner way in.

Lean: Giants -2. I don't love it, so I'll mostly look at props once the injury report settles.

Patriots at Lions

Sun Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium, Munich

• The line: DET -3, total 51. Market-implied score: DET 27.0, NE 24.0.
• Full matchup page: Patriots at Lions

Deadline moves

• Lions in: S Andre Cisco (from the Jets, for a 2028 6th). Grade: B+. A cheap, proven safety for what's been the weak spot of this defense.

Potential game of the week in Munich, as long as the Patriots decide to be competent.

What's interesting is how both teams are trending. New England's pass defense is 24th by EPA for the season but 31st over the last four. For those keeping track of how many teams are in the NFL, that's second to last, with a few big names in that secondary. Their run defense went the other way, from 10th to 5th, so they're turning into a massive pass funnel.

The question is how stubborn the Lions want to be about running it. They have Jahmyr Gibbs, who is elite, and I think Detroit has success on the ground no matter what. Even Green Bay, who look horrible running the ball, put up 45 on New England last week. This feels like a Detroit 27-plus spot: the Lions get what they want through the air, and the moment they lean on the run, Gibbs can break one at any time.

On the other side, Detroit's defense is 28th in EPA per play for the season but 12th over the last four. Granted, they just played Miami, so who really cares, but they looked fantastic against Green Bay, in a dome, so no weather fluke. They're getting healthier, they just added safety Andre Cisco from the Jets, and as a known Lions hater, I think there's some life there.

I'm just not sold on where Drake Maye is right now. He's had games where he looks awesome and games where he looks terrible, and with no A.J. Brown he's still missing weapons. Slam the Lions, and if some overseas funny business happens, so be it. I'll take the team trending up on both sides of the ball over the team trending down on both.

Props I'm looking at

• Patriots pass catchers: I think the lines end up a little too light. I'll probably like DeMario Douglas on every angle, Hunter Henry depends on how healthy he actually is, and anything with backup tight end Eli Raridon is interesting: he out-targeted Henry 6 to 3 last week. I don't know if they score a ton, but the yardage feels light.

Lean: Lions -2.5 and the Lions team total over.

Bills at Jets

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

• The line: BUF -8, total 51. Market-implied score: NYJ 21.5, BUF 29.5.
• Full matchup page: Bills at Jets

Deadline moves

• Bills in: S Amani Hooker (from the Titans, for a 2027 2nd). Grade: B. A solid safety for a pass defense that can be exposed, though a 2nd is a real price.
• Jets out: S Andre Cisco (to the Lions, for a 2028 6th). Grade: C. Barely any return, and an already shaky secondary gets thinner.

Actually a pretty fun game, and one I'm looking forward to. I've tried to make the Jets work a few times this season, and this is another spot that points to them: at home, against a Bills team coming off Monday night in Minnesota on a short week. Buffalo handled that one 23-6, and the line has ticked up to 8.

The only thing I don't like is the weather: wind around 15 mph, though no rain and about 50 degrees, so it's not terrible. This Bills defense can be exposed, and I've been waiting for a team to do it. I thought it would be the Ravens with Lamar, but then he got hurt.

I just think the Jets can move the ball. Geno isn't fully incompetent, and he has his weapons back and healthy. Buffalo probably hangs 30 on another team, but there's room for the Jets to get to 22 and push this over, and if they get to 27, it might be a field-goal game. Two pretty poor defenses and two good offenses.

The Jets' run defense just got gashed by the Chiefs for 163 rushing yards, and now it gets one of the best rushing offenses in football. Assuming James Cook gets his usual 18 to 20 carries, I'll be on some Cook props.

Props I'm looking at

• James Cook: Rushing overs.
• Adonai Mitchell and the Jets receivers: Mitchell just had a big air-yards week (126 on 7 targets), and Geno is clearly looking downfield. Probably a few Jets receiver overs, and maybe some ladders if the wind cooperates.

Lean: The over, a slight lean to the Jets +8, and James Cook rushing overs.

Panthers at Saints

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome

• The line: NO -2.5, total 48.5/49.5. Market-implied score: NO 25.6, CAR 23.1.
• Full matchup page: Panthers at Saints

Deadline moves

• Saints out: DT Davon Godchaux (to the Jaguars, for a conditional 2028 6th). Grade: C. Small move, but it's one less body in a run defense that only just started trending up.

This might be one of my favorite bets in a long time. It's an easy buy-low spot on the Panthers.

This Saints team just needed overtime to beat the Browns and Shedeur Sanders, 23-22. Saints -2.5 feels silly. I get that it's at home, but that makes these two about even on a neutral field, and it doesn't add up for me. The Panthers are better just about everywhere.

We were on Denver against Carolina last week and kind of lucked our way into that one with a few questionable coaching decisions and calls. Hey, we take the win. But the market is so ready to sell this Panthers team, and I think it's a buy. We saw what they did early in the year, including beating the Lions. It hasn't been great since the bye, but they showed signs against an elite Denver defense. Now they go to New Orleans, where the Falcons put up 45, mostly on the ground. The Saints' run defense has been trending better (28th for the season, 10th over the last four), but I'm not sold on it.

Carolina is the better team, and it's silly that this is where the line sits in Week 10. The Saints haven't impressed against just about anyone since Week 4. Can't wait to look like an idiot when the Panthers lose by 7.

Props I'm looking at

• Chuba Hubbard: Overs whenever those lines come out, probably Tuesday or Wednesday.
• Tetairoa McMillan: Overs. I want someone who can stretch the field, and New Orleans looks like it lacks good deep coverage. Maybe that's a sucker bet and they play off and give up the run, so it's one to look into.

Lean: Panthers +2.5 and the moneyline, plus alternate spreads at Panthers -2.5, -6.5 and -9.5 if we're feeling frisky. Chuba Hubbard overs too.

Texans at Browns

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field

• The line: HOU -5, total 40. Market-implied score: CLE 17.5, HOU 22.5.
• Full matchup page: Texans at Browns

Get ready for this stat: Houston is 2nd in EPA per play on offense over the last four games. That's the same C.J. Stroud who started the first four games. They added Marvin Harrison Jr., beat Jacksonville in London, came off the bye and trounced the Chargers 44-22 (which everyone gets to do), and Tank Dell is back, so they're getting healthier.

The only question mark, oddly enough, is the defense. Houston's pass defense doesn't look great, but now it faces a Browns team that can't throw the ball, and it should get immense pressure on whoever starts, Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson. Cleveland had about 280 yards in regulation against the Saints last week, and more than half of it (154) came on a handful of broken deep passes. I don't know how anyone puts hard-earned American dollars on this Browns offense.

Houston closed around -5.5 at the Chargers last week, so this line says the Browns and the Chargers are about equal. One of those teams is 5-4. The other is 0-8. Pretty hilarious when you look at it that way.

If you think Cleveland stays close because of its defense, sure, there's a case. The Browns' defense is competent, so the real question is whether Houston gets to 20. If someone told me the Texans get to 24, I'd be hammering -5. Cleveland wants to run the ball, because that's where it's most successful, and I don't think they want Watson or Sanders throwing 35 times. Against a very good defense, like Pittsburgh in a 27-6 loss, they just can't move it consistently or pick up first downs.

The Texans' record isn't great at 3-5, but I'd call them a top-10 team. My only concern is the weather: about 12 mph of wind and 46 degrees. I want to be a buyer of Houston and a seller of Cleveland.

Lean: Texans -5.

Jaguars at Titans

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium

• The line: JAX -10.5, total 46.5. Market-implied score: TEN 18.0, JAX 28.5.
• Full matchup page: Jaguars at Titans

Deadline moves

• Jaguars in: S Jessie Bates III (from the Falcons, for a 2027 2nd and a 2028 5th). Grade: A-. A top-tier safety for a Day 2 pick.
• Jaguars in: DT Jordan Davis (from the Eagles, for a 2027 1st and a 2029 2nd). Grade: B-. A massive run-stuffer, at a steep price.
• Jaguars in: DT Davon Godchaux (from the Saints, for a conditional 2028 6th). Grade: B+. Rotation depth for basically free.
• Titans out: S Amani Hooker (to the Bills, for a 2027 2nd). Grade: B+. A good return for a seller, but this week's secondary gets thinner.

I don't know how this spread is only 10.5. I was expecting 12 or 12.5. It's in Tennessee, but the Jaguars are on 10 days' rest and the Titans are off a bye, so call it two rested teams.

Jacksonville traded for three defenders on Monday (Jessie Bates from Atlanta, plus defensive tackles Jordan Davis from Philadelphia and Davon Godchaux from New Orleans), which is funny because the Jaguars were already the second-best defense in the NFL over the last four games. The good just get better.

They've dominated lesser teams all year: Cleveland, New England, Indianapolis (42-7) and Baltimore (33-10). Most of that was at home, and away it's been a slightly different story, but my point stands: they're very good at beating up on lesser talent. Our ratings have them as the number-one team in football, which is interesting since they haven't played anyone that great. There's something to be said for handling bad teams, and they do it as well as anyone.

I'll more than likely be on Jacksonville -10.5. I don't love laying double digits in the NFL, but they keep covering these massive numbers. Good offense against bad defense, bad offense against good defense. It's kind of a boring game otherwise, which means props.

Props I'm looking at

• Bhayshul Tuten: Overs if his rushing line opens around 60 to 62. When Jacksonville gets up, it puts the ball on the ground and lets Tuten run 18 to 20 times.
• Trevor Lawrence: Passing touchdowns over. If the Jaguars score four touchdowns, two through the air feels fine.
• Carnell Tate: Maybe unders, depending on where he opens, since he's just coming back from injury.
• Gunnar Helm: Maybe overs. He looked great against Cincinnati last time out (5 catches, 76 yards), and this should be another trailing script.

Lean: Jaguars -10.5.

Chiefs at Falcons

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

• The line: KC -3.5, total 45/45.5. Market-implied score: ATL 20.9, KC 24.4.
• Full matchup page: Chiefs at Falcons

Deadline moves

• Chiefs in: WR Josh Downs (from the Colts, for 2027 4th- and 5th-round picks). Grade: A-. A reliable slot target for Mahomes at a fair price.
• Falcons out: S Jessie Bates III (to the Jaguars, for a 2027 2nd and a 2028 5th). Grade: B. A fair return, but it's the white flag on a defense that's already struggling.

Atlanta was a big letdown for us last Sunday in Madrid. Now it gets a miserable welcome-home game against a Chiefs team with a clear plan: run Kenneth Walker 20-plus times and let him eat.

We kind of lucked out on the Emmett Johnson props last week, hitting a small ladder mostly because he finally got six carries in the fourth quarter. But Walker's usage is wild for an Andy Reid team. In past years Reid always split the work at least a little, and last week it was oddly all Walker. I'm not going to fight it. Walker is the truth, and I'll be on his overs in some form.

The Falcons' defense has given up, and they traded Jessie Bates to Jacksonville on Monday. The offense looks anemic. They looked good beating the Saints and the 49ers, then got shut out in Tampa and fell apart against Cincinnati after a good first drive. It's a very confusing year for Atlanta, and a disappointing one given how much talent is on that offense. My dream scenario is they put in Tua and somehow get worse.

The Falcons and the Panthers are somehow two of the biggest sell teams in the NFL right now. On the Falcons I completely agree: I want off that train. (I don't know how I talked myself back onto the Panthers; I just love that spot.) The Chiefs, who just added Josh Downs from Indianapolis at the deadline, get to pick the number they want and go get it: run it through Walker, complete a few outside, and maybe Xavier Worthy hits a bomb.

Props I'm looking at

• Kenneth Walker III: Overs on rushing, receiving or touchdowns, any of it.
• Emmett Johnson: I want to get back on him somehow. He's fantastic every time he touches the ball, but it's impossible to know what Andy Reid wants to do with his running backs. Maybe just sit Mahomes and give both backs 20 carries. (That's a joke.)
• Bijan Robinson: Rushing yards or receptions over is the only Falcons thing I'd touch. He caught 6 last week on a line of, I think, 3.5, which is a little wild.

Lean: The over; in a dome, 45 feels a little light. I liked Chiefs -3, but at -3.5 I'm off the side. If 3 comes back, it's a play.

Dolphins at Colts

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

• The line: IND -3.5, total 38.5. Market-implied score: IND 21.0, MIA 17.5.
• Full matchup page: Dolphins at Colts

Deadline moves

• Colts out: WR Josh Downs (to the Chiefs, for 2027 4th- and 5th-round picks). Grade: C+. Their most reliable receiver, gone for Day 3 picks.
• Colts out: WR Keenan Allen (to the 49ers, for a 2027 6th). Grade: C. More of a roster move than a return.
• Colts staying: RB Jonathan Taylor. Farewell message and all, he's still a Colt.
• Colts out earlier (Oct. 27): G Quenton Nelson to Seattle and DT DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. This team is selling.

The Toilet Bowl of the week. I want to give Miami a shout for the upset, because the path is pretty clear: run the ball 35 times and hope that's enough. They do it against good teams, and now they face a defense that struggles to stop the run.

My early thought was Dolphins +3 and that the Colts finally wave the white flag, which we're starting to see. Jonathan Taylor's farewell message made the rounds on Sunday, which was weird with the trade deadline on Tuesday. In the end Taylor stayed, but the Colts sold Josh Downs to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco, so the white flag is up. Running backs only move a line a point or two at most anyway.

The line has me a little perplexed. I wanted 3.5 and it didn't open there, though it's there now. Miami has oddly been competent on offense, and while the defense isn't great, holding the Lions to 19 last week is massive against an offense that good.

When two bad teams play and I don't have a stance, there's no point forcing something. I think Miami's offense has some success, so I'll look there and stay off the side.

Props I'm looking at

• Ollie Gordon II: Overs, and I like an anytime touchdown.
• Caleb Douglas: He looked fantastic last game (6 catches, 70 yards) and keeps getting better. Might look there.

Lean: No side. Dolphins props only.

Vikings at Packers

Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field

• The line: GB -3.5, total 41.5. Market-implied score: GB 22.5, MIN 19.0.
• Full matchup page: Vikings at Packers

Deadline moves

• Vikings in: QB Kirk Cousins (from the Raiders, for a 2027 3rd). Grade: B. With Kyler Murray's hamstring and Carson Wentz's 81 yards on Monday, they needed a floor. Whether Cousins starts at Lambeau isn't confirmed yet.

This is going to be a fun one. Green Bay is 4th in EPA per play on offense over the last four games and 9th against the run on defense, and the defense overall has been fantastic.

Minnesota's defense is trending down, which makes sense: they played a bunch of nobodies early. Before losing in Detroit, the only good teams they'd played were Green Bay in Week 1 and the Bears, in some terrible weather.

Now the spot is brutal: a short week after Monday night against Buffalo, one of the best teams in football, then a trip to Lambeau against a Packers team that looks like it's peaking. Micah Parsons may still be a couple of weeks away, but Green Bay is getting healthier on both sides and clicking on offense. Matthew Golden looks like a top-10 receiver in the NFL when he catches the ball, an important caveat, since some games he leaves his hands at home.

I want to be a seller of the Vikings. Any team whose backfield is Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones Sr., somehow close to splitting carries, I want nothing to do with. T.J. Hockenson leads them in catches because they can't get Justin Jefferson the ball. It's trouble in Minnesota, and they're well on their way to three losses by the end of next week.

I think Green Bay's Week 1 loss in Minnesota was a little fluky; they were winning before some shenanigans. Unless Jordan Love throws a couple of picks and hands them short fields, I don't see the Vikings driving for three touchdowns, or even getting to two touchdowns and two field goals. Divisional games get weird, but this feels like ride the wave and avoid the sinking ship. The Vikings got blown out Monday night, 23-6, with Carson Wentz going 8 of 25 for 81 yards and two picks in place of the injured Kyler Murray (hamstring), and they traded for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday. Somehow the line hasn't budged from 3.5.

Lean: Packers -3.5, Packers team total over and Vikings team total under.

Rams at Cardinals

Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium

• The line: LA -9.5, total 39.5. Market-implied score: ARI 15.0, LA 24.5.
• Full matchup page: Rams at Cardinals

Deadline moves

• Cardinals out (last week): QB Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens. Grade: C. With Minshew hurt, it's why rookie Carson Beck starts.

Your injury game of the week. Gardner Minshew (torn UCL) and Michael Wilson (neck) look done for the year, and Jeremiyah Love missed last week. The Cardinals' offense has just about nobody left, and rookie Carson Beck is in line to start.

On the other side, Puka Nacua is going on IR and Davante Adams is already there, so it's Matthew Stafford with off-the-street receivers and a lot of tight ends. Expect plenty of two-tight-end sets. I don't think they want Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell out there together; maybe Atwell just gets some cardio in, sprinting downfield to pull a safety.

The story is how Arizona ever moves the ball. The Rams' defense is about as healthy as it's been all year, I rate it very highly, and I can't think of a worse defense to make your first start against. Arizona just went to Seattle and scored 3. The Cardinals' team total under (about 15) is disgusting, but that's where I am.

When the Rams have the ball, I think they keep it on the ground and throw short to tight ends, which chews clock. A pretty boring game, and I'm not going to second-guess it.

Props I'm looking at

• Kyren Williams and Blake Corum: Overs. Corum keeps getting good work every week, and I want to be a buyer.

Lean: The under and the Cardinals team total under, plus Rams running back overs once props open.

Seahawks at Raiders

Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium

• The line: SEA -6.5, total 40.5. Market-implied score: LV 17.0, SEA 23.5.
• Full matchup page: Seahawks at Raiders

Deadline moves

• Raiders out: QB Kirk Cousins (to the Vikings, for a 2027 3rd). Grade: B+. A decent return for a bridge quarterback, but it means rookie Fernando Mendoza's first start comes against Seattle's defense.
• Seahawks in (Oct. 27): G Quenton Nelson from the Colts. Grade: A-. An elite guard for a run game that needs one.

Before I looked, I thought this line should be closer to 6. Seattle's defense is very good, and Las Vegas hasn't been able to move the ball against very good defenses. Last week in San Francisco, the Raiders had no success until Brock Bowers finally got going, in a 38-17 loss.

What's most interesting is that the Raiders are dead last in run defense by EPA over the last four games. Seattle hasn't run it well, but I think the plan is to keep it on the ground, chew clock, get up a touchdown and let the defense win it.

If Seattle falls behind, it gets sketchier. Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock is banged up (oblique), though Lock is expected to start. Then again, I figure Seattle can beat the Raiders with just about anyone; I might be able to play quarterback and will them to a win. And Las Vegas just traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, so rookie Fernando Mendoza makes the start against one of the best defenses in football. That's why this line has jumped from 3.5 to 6.5.

The one place you can get at Seattle's defense lately is on the ground (9th against the run for the season, 29th over the last four), so Las Vegas may try to run. It's still a tall task. Neither team wants to go deep, so this should be a slow run-fest.

Props I'm looking at

• Ashton Jeanty: Rushing overs, as disgusting as that is. His usage is confusing: two carries against the Jets two weeks ago, then six against the 49ers in an even split with Mike Washington Jr.
• Zach Charbonnet: Possibly overs and alts, if we can crack the snap-count code. He led Seattle with 16 carries last week.

Lean: A soft lean to Seattle, but -6.5 isn't a play anymore with the move. The under is still in play.

49ers at Cowboys

Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium

• The line: SF -4, total 55.5. Market-implied score: DAL 25.8, SF 29.8.
• Full matchup page: 49ers at Cowboys

Deadline moves

• 49ers in: WR Keenan Allen (from the Colts, for a 2027 6th). Grade: B+. A veteran possession target for a 6th-rounder.
• 49ers in (Oct. 27): DT DeForest Buckner from the Colts. Grade: A-. A big upgrade on the interior of the defensive line.

I think this line is off by a couple of points. On a neutral field, 49ers -6 feels about right. They keep putting up points, the defense is good (4th in EPA per play over the last four), and Dallas keeps underperforming with all the weapons in the world. San Francisco also added Keenan Allen from Indianapolis at the deadline.

Brock Purdy looks great: comfortable in the pocket, doesn't take sacks, and very seldom goes backwards or turns it over. The Dallas defense is nothing to be scared of, even if it's been better lately (30th by EPA for the season, 16th over the last four).

Dallas is the team I have questions about. There are moments it looks great and others that are truly hard to watch. Somehow this is close to a must-win in Week 10, because they've lost too many easy ones.

The total at 56 feels a smidge high for how slow San Francisco plays and how good its defense is. Then again, any NFL total north of 55 feels high. I struggle to see Dallas winning: I think the 49ers control the game and the tempo, and their defense wins out.

Props I'm looking at

• Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers run game: Overs. He gets so much volume, and the Colts just ran well on Dallas with Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan.
• CeeDee Lamb: Overs. When Dallas has to pass, he gets loads of work, and I don't see the 49ers doubling him.

Lean: 49ers -4 and the under, plus 49ers rushing and CeeDee Lamb overs.

Steelers at Bengals

Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium

• The line: CIN -3.5, total 49.5. Market-implied score: CIN 26.5, PIT 23.0.
• Full matchup page: Steelers at Bengals

I've never been more ready to be proven wrong about Cincinnati. Last week I called the Bengals the most confusing team in football, and they torched Atlanta 34-17. Their offense is 1st in EPA per play over the last four games, but Pittsburgh's defense is 7th, and the Steelers are off a bye while the Bengals come back from Madrid for prime time.

Cincinnati's defense is trending down (15th for the season, 22nd over the last four), which was only a matter of time, since it was never that good. I think Pittsburgh has success on the ground: it's the best rushing offense in football by EPA, and Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle both look great. I think Cincinnati has success through the air. I don't think you can run on this Steelers defense, especially off a bye, and Chase Brown has looked terrible. It's cold, around 40 degrees.

The game plan is so clear. The more I talk about it, the more I can't wait for props. Pittsburgh's team total of 22.5 feels a point and a half light; I like 24. Cincy still scores, but the spot for the Steelers is too good to pass up in a divisional game off the bye.

Props I'm looking at

• Chase Brown: Unders.
• Steelers pass catchers, Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle: Very curious to see where these open. All things Steelers offense.

Lean: Steelers +3.5, the over and the Steelers team total over 22.5.

Chargers at Ravens

Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium

• The line: BAL -4.5, total 38.5. Market-implied score: BAL 21.5, LAC 17.0.
• Full matchup page: Chargers at Ravens

Deadline moves

• Ravens in (last week): QB Jacoby Brissett from the Cardinals. Grade: B. He makes his first start here, and Zay Flowers finally gets a real passer.
• Chargers out: LB Daiyan Henley (to the Broncos, for a 2027 4th and a 2028 5th). Grade: C-. Selling at 0-8 makes sense long term, but it doesn't help this week.

Add this to the list of games I'd have been excited about in Week 1. Now these are the bottom two offenses in football over the last four games. The one thing it has going for it: Jacoby Brissett gets his first start for Baltimore, so Zay Flowers finally has someone to throw him the ball.

Houston just carved up the Chargers through the air, so I like Flowers overs. I hope his line opens around 65 yards; I have a feeling it'll be 72 or 73, which is hard to chase. I think they let Brissett air it out. It looks like 45 degrees and no rain.

Derrick Henry has been bad all year. We haven't seen the big breaks, he isn't breaking tackles when he's hit behind the line, and he needs a full head of steam. He's at 3.4 yards a carry over his last four games, and his rushing line has slid from the 90s to a 70.5 close last week. The Chargers' run defense isn't good, but I still like Henry unders.

Herbert should have a little more time to throw than last week, but the offensive line is beat up and so is he, with what looks like a splint or a semi-cast over a couple of fingers on his left hand. It's ugly all around, which sums up the Chargers' season.

With all that said, 5 points between two of the worst teams in the NFL feels like a couple too many. I expected 3. It's a new system for Brissett, and Baltimore looks mentally defeated, while the 0-8 Chargers are in must-win territory. If they lose, they'll be firing coaches before they get on the plane.

Props I'm looking at

• Zay Flowers: Receiving overs. He's the only one who should get consistent volume.
• Derrick Henry: Rushing unders.

Lean: Chargers +5, ready to be disappointed again, in what should be a pretty disgusting game.

Wrap-up

Overall it should be a fun week of football. I truly love that Carolina spot. I didn't realize how good it was until I wrote it up, and I just want to be a buyer.

There are some games between some of the worst teams in football and some between the better ones. I'm curious to see Green Bay here. They look fantastic, so I put a little on them: Packers to win the Super Bowl at +2200 (0.25 units) and to win the NFC at +1150 (0.5 units).

I'm also going to find somewhere to bet the Vikings to finish last in the NFC North (or miss the playoffs), if you're looking for a few exotics to add to the season-long card.

Thanks for reading. These are always fun, and this is my first rundown of the week.