NFL Week 9 preview: every line, every matchup and where I'm leaning

Quick note before you start: this is fully off the cuff. These are my first thoughts as I work through projections, not a final or cleaned-up breakdown, so read it as quick reactions as we build into Week 9.

I said "horrific" about 14 times writing this, which tells you where Week 9 is. Two teams are starting new quarterbacks, the Chargers are 0-7, and a lot of this slate is garbage ball. There are still spots to attack, so here's a quick look at every game and where I'm leaning.

Where I'm leaning

• Jaguars @ Ravens: Jaguars -9.5
• Bengals @ Falcons: Falcons +3, over 53
• Browns @ Saints: Saints at pick'em, under 43
• Cowboys @ Colts: Cowboys -5.5, under 52
• Broncos @ Panthers: Broncos -2.5, over 44
• Lions @ Dolphins: Lions -7
• Rams @ Commanders: Rams -5.5, under 47
• Giants @ Eagles: Giants -3, waiting on inactives
• Jets @ Chiefs: Under 47, no side
• Texans @ Chargers: Texans -4
• Raiders @ 49ers: 49ers team total over
• Cardinals @ Seahawks: Under 42
• Packers @ Patriots: Packers +3 and moneyline
• Buccaneers @ Bears: Bears -6
• Bills @ Vikings: Bills -3, deciding Monday

Slate at a glance

• 15 games; Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye.
• Biggest spread: Seattle -11.5 to -13 vs. Arizona.
• Biggest line move: Baltimore -3 at open to Jacksonville -9.5 to -10, with the total down from 48.5 to about 40.
• Highest totals: Bengals @ Falcons and Raiders @ 49ers (about 53). Lowest: Giants @ Eagles and Jaguars @ Ravens (about 40).
• Madrid: Bengals vs. Falcons at the Bernabeu, Sunday 9:30 AM ET.
• New starters: Joe Fagnano (Baltimore) and Gardner Minshew (Arizona). Kyler Murray (hamstring) and Matthew Stafford (arm) are the QBs to watch.

How to read the game cards: each one shows the consensus spread and total, then how each offense stacks up against the defense it faces in EPA per play, rush EPA and pass EPA, with league ranks (green = top 10, red = bottom 10).

Jaguars at Ravens

Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium

• The line: JAX -9.5 to -10, total 40–40.5. Market-implied score: BAL 15.2, JAX 25.2.
• News: Lamar Jackson (thumb, surgery) is out and Tyler Huntley (toe) is doubtful, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano starts. Bhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) missed practice Monday and Tuesday. Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jakobi Meyers were limited.
• Full matchup page: Jaguars at Ravens

Without Lamar and Snoop, this is close to a wave-the-white-flag game for Baltimore. Fagnano went 10 of 21 for 91 yards in his only game, so it comes down to Derrick Henry and whether they can scheme up short throws to Zay Flowers.

Jacksonville sits at the top of our team ratings and handles business against lesser teams, and the Ravens are that team this week. The Jaguars also rank 1st against the run by EPA, but I still think Baltimore feeds Henry 20 times as long as this stays close (for however long that may be).

Props I'm looking at

• Chris Rodriguez Jr.: If Tuten is limited, I expect more Rodriguez. I'll be checking his props.
• Justice Hill: I want a piece of the action here if his rushing plus receiving line is near 20. He saw 8 targets with Fagnano last week and was a full participant Tuesday after a groin issue.

Lean: Jaguars -9.5. I have this as a 12-to-13-point game or more.

Bengals at Falcons

Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET · Bernabeu, Madrid

• The line: CIN -3, total 52.5–53.5. Market-implied score: ATL 24.8, CIN 27.8.
• News: Zachariah Branch (hamstring) won't play, per Kevin Stefanski. Brian Robinson Jr. is questionable after missing two games.
• Full matchup page: Bengals at Falcons

The Bengals remain the most confusing team in the league: some games great, some terrible, often a slow start. Atlanta looked dire in a 16-0 loss at Tampa, but that game was played in the rain, so I'm mostly throwing out Michael Penix Jr.'s 8-for-24 day with 4 picks. I still like him.

Tampa just ran for a franchise-record 324 yards on the Falcons, but Cincinnati isn't built to copy that. The Bengals rank 22nd in rushing EPA, and Chase Brown is excellent at running into the back of his own line. He has one touchdown all year, back in Week 1. It's becoming a sick joke, and at some point he has to score.

It's disgusting after a Falcons shutout, but I kind of like the upset in Madrid.

Props I'm looking at

• Kyle Pitts: Cincinnati allows the second-most tight end yards per game, and Gunnar Helm just had 76. Five or six catches for 60 and a touchdown is well within range.
• Drake London: Probably some overs.
• Bijan Robinson: Depends on whether Brian Robinson Jr. is back.

Lean: Falcons +3, and I'm hoping for a 3.5. I also like the over, and if Cincinnati starts slow again, this is a spot to attack live.

Browns at Saints

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome

• The line: NO PK to -1.5, total 42.5–43.5. Market-implied score: NO 22.2, CLE 20.8.
• News: The Saints are off their bye. They claimed Audric Estime from Cleveland on Tuesday, and Jordyn Tyson and Travis Etienne Jr. (both IR) could be nearing a return.
• Full matchup page: Browns at Saints

This one is pure disgusting. New Orleans is 2-5, Cleveland is 5-3, and I'm still taking the Saints at home off a bye. Cleveland just got trounced 27-6 in Pittsburgh, and I'm curious whether New Orleans tries to run it as much as the Steelers did.

The Browns' passing game is random week to week. Harold Fannin Jr. just had 10 catches for 154, and one of him, KC Concepcion or Denzel Boston usually has a big game, but good luck guessing which. Cleveland wants to slow this down and its defense is decent, so we'll see if Tyler Shough can crack the code.

Props I'm looking at

• Saints running backs: There are about eight of them in that room. The props are a mess, so I might try to solve the Rubik's Cube and find who gets enough volume.

As you can tell by my uncertainty, there's not much I like here other than that Saints spot. These two teams just aren't good.

Lean: Saints at pick'em and the under. You're telling me the Saints are +2 on a neutral field? Better QB, better weapons, off a bye. This will make me look like an idiot when they lose by 7, but I can't get past it.

Cowboys at Colts

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

• The line: DAL -5.5 to -6, total 51.5–52. Market-implied score: IND 22.8, DAL 28.8.
• News: Shane Steichen says Daniel Jones stays the starter after being pulled late in the 42-7 loss at Jacksonville. Jake Ferguson (ankle) has a chance to play. The Colts have traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and Jonathan Taylor trade talk continues ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
• Full matchup page: Cowboys at Colts

In Week 1 I would have been excited for this game. Instead it's 3-5 against 2-6 garbage ball. Dallas has been one of the more confusing teams of the last few years: so much talent, a terrible defense. Dak is very good at beating up on bad teams and terrible in games that matter.

The Colts look lost and a bit mentally defeated. A Taylor trade feels more likely by the day, but I'm assuming he plays until it's official. Dallas needs this to salvage its season, and running it down Indy's throat seems like the plan, even though Javonte Williams managed just 56 yards on 24 carries last week.

Props I'm looking at

• Seth McGowan: Taylor's backup, worth a look on a few overs. Dallas ranks 29th against the run, and Tyler Allgeier just went for 147 on them.
• Keenan Allen: Another 6-for-60, maybe with a touchdown.
• Josh Downs: If I had any faith in him I'd go back here. I don't.
• Jake Ferguson: Auto no-play. Brevyn Spann-Ford is frisky for a few ladders.

Lean: Cowboys -5.5 and the under. Something like 27-20 or 30-20, with Dallas winning by a touchdown or two.

Broncos at Panthers

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

• The line: DEN -2.5 to -3, total 43.5–44.5. Market-implied score: CAR 20.5, DEN 23.5.
• News: RJ Harvey (knee) is on IR. Carolina has extra rest after playing Thursday, Oct. 29.
• Full matchup page: Broncos at Panthers

If these teams played three weeks ago, Carolina might be -3. The Panthers had beaten Detroit and won in Philadelphia, then lost 43-13 at home to Tampa and looked bad again at Green Bay. Bryce Young looks lost, and I think he has trouble with a Denver defense I still rate top-seven, even though they rank 13th defensively by EPA/play.

The side I really want to attack is the Denver run game. The Broncos want to use Jonah Coleman, and Carolina is 28th against the run. Bo Nix also looked better pushing the ball downfield last week. I think we see some success for this Denver offense.

Props I'm looking at

• Jonah Coleman: The overs, against that run defense.
• Chuba Hubbard: We project him well because Denver is 26th against the run.
• Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton: Waddle's line at 43.5 and Sutton's at 35.5 both look low.

Lean: Broncos -2.5 and the over. One of these teams gets to 27. It's a weird letdown spot, so Panthers +8.5 in the Wong teasers also looks solid. It's a buy-low at home, and I see a one-score game.

Lions at Dolphins

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

• The line: DET -7 to -7.5, total 49.5–50.5. Market-implied score: MIA 21.8, DET 28.8.
• News: No skill player has been ruled out yet.
• Full matchup page: Lions at Dolphins

If I could skip this game I would. Great offense, bad defense. Miami ranks 32nd against the pass, and Jahmyr Gibbs has free rein after running for 153 last week. This is the full workload we were promised when they traded David Montgomery.

Miami's implied 22 points feels a smidge high. The Dolphins have played the hardest schedule in the league by opponent record and have kept their last four games within one score, but I think Detroit scores 30-plus and Miami can't keep pace. I don't love Detroit's defense, but it's getting healthier and did a decent job against Minnesota last week.

Props I'm looking at

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 100 on the ground and a touchdown or two. I'll be on him in some manner.
• Sione Vaki: He should get 5 or 6 touches. If his rushing prop is near 15, I'll take that all day and maybe ladder it.
• Jameson Williams: Five touchdowns in his last three games. If his receiving line is near 50, I'll look at it, plus a touchdown.
• The rest: I like nearly every Detroit over except Amon-Ra St. Brown, who's been a little banged up and might get eased along.

Lean: Lions -7.

Rams at Commanders

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

• The line: LA -5.5 to -6, total 47–47.5. Market-implied score: WAS 21.0, LA 26.5.
• News: Matthew Stafford's arm was iced after Sunday's game, and Sean McVay confirmed soreness. Washington lost Terry McLaurin and Jeremy McNichols to IR. Colby Parkinson (rib) is questionable.
• Full matchup page: Rams at Commanders

The Rams look bad passing and good in the rush game. Stafford's yardage has fallen four straight games (383, 222, 195, 157), while Blake Corum has 166 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two. Stopping the run is the better half of Washington's defense, so this isn't a free pass on the ground.

I'm assuming Stafford is fine physically. The Rams' defense ranks 3rd and still isn't fully healthy. Washington is too undisciplined and too beat up. Rachaad White leads the backfield with McNichols out, and old man Austin Ekeler being anyone's lead back would be a bad look. Even with how much I criticize the Rams, they're head and shoulders better than this team.

Props I'm looking at

• Puka Nacua: Everyone say hello to his 12-catch, 150-yard, 2-touchdown game.
• Rams tight ends: Depends on who's active, but I expect them to get peppered.

Lean: Rams -5.5 and the under. I think Washington only gets to about 17.

Giants at Eagles

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field

• The line: NYG -3 to -3.5, total 39.5–40.5. Market-implied score: PHI 18.0, NYG 21.5.
• News: Cam Skattebo (hamstring) is a possible game-time decision, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on IR. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are questionable. Saquon Barkley played 32% of snaps in Week 8.
• Full matchup page: Giants at Eagles

Another toilet bowl. Philadelphia is 2-6 and has lost by 17 in each of the last two weeks, at home to Dallas and at Washington. The season looks lost, and I struggle to see them pushing Saquon and the other top guys through injuries.

J.J. McCarthy being good is kind of fun, with 495 passing yards over his last two games. The Giants are 4-2-1, off a bye, and healthier and better than whatever the Eagles put out there. This game is still too beat up for me to have much of a feel.

Lean: Giants -3 if it's still there later in the week. It's a lean and maybe not an official play, and I'm waiting on final inactives.

Jets at Chiefs

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

• The line: KC -9.5 to -10, total 47–47.5. Market-implied score: KC 28.5, NYJ 19.0.
• News: Breece Hall (quad) is expected back, per Ian Rapoport.
• Full matchup page: Jets at Chiefs

Chiefs -10 feels too wide for how they've looked, but the numbers surprised me. The Jets are 11th in EPA per play, which shows how many terrible offenses are out there. Kansas City is 4th, which shows what a run game does for an offense, though the Chiefs haven't played a tough schedule.

The Chiefs' defense is good enough to give Geno fits, and the Jets just gave up 38 to the Raiders. I expect both defenses to bounce back, with Kansas City slowing it down and running a bit more.

Props I'm looking at

• Kenneth Walker III: Feels like his spot. I like that they're getting their other back involved too, to keep him fresh after the wild workload they gave him to start the year.
• Braelon Allen: Hall coming back ruins anything here.

Lean: Under 47 and no side.

Texans at Chargers

Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

• The line: HOU -4 to -5, total 40.5–41.5. Market-implied score: LAC 18.0, HOU 22.5.
• News: Jaylin Noel is on IR. DeMeco Ryans had no significant update on David Montgomery (groin), though I expect him back. Brenen Thompson isn't expected to practice for the Chargers.
• Full matchup page: Texans at Chargers

Houston is off the bye and facing an 0-7 team. The Texans' defense ranks 22nd by EPA, but I've thought all year they should be very good. They get to the quarterback (5th in sack rate), and coverage downfield has been the issue.

The Chargers' run game is disgusting, ranking 31st. They're moving from Omarion Hampton to Kimani Vidal, and the books now have them about even, which tells you no one knows what's going on. Their defense is competent, though, so a low-40s total seems right. I expect Houston to lead, stay on the ground and chew clock, like the Rams did to the Chargers last week.

Props I'm looking at

• Ladd McConkey: It's Ladd or nothing on this offense. He looked healthy again last week with 86 yards, and he finds space against this defense as long as Justin Herbert has time.
• Nico Collins: We're light on him at 4.0 catches against a 5.5 line. With Marvin Harrison Jr., Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and Xavier Hutchinson all around, and Montgomery back as another mouth to feed, 5.5 is a lot in a game Houston should lead.

Lean: Texans -4. Laying points on the road always leaves the door open for a backdoor cover, but Houston is the much better team. Chargers, it's not your year. Move on.

Raiders at 49ers

Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET · Levi's Stadium

• The line: SF -9.5 to -10, total 52–53. Market-implied score: SF 31.2, LV 21.2.
• News: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Mike Evans were all trending toward a return after the bye. Wednesday's report is the first real read.
• Full matchup page: Raiders at 49ers

This is a Brock Purdy field day. Every play seems to go 8 to 12 yards, San Francisco has the lowest sack rate in the league, and the 49ers run it well. Las Vegas ranks 28th on defense, so it comes down to who's active. I think they score 30-plus, and I don't see a reason to force McCaffrey the ball coming off a bye with so many guys banged up.

The Raiders remain confusing. Mike Washington Jr. got 25 carries to Ashton Jeanty's 2 last week, while Jeanty caught 3 passes for 64 yards. Klint Kubiak called it his decision and says Jeanty will stay a big part of the team. Jeanty said he just wants to win, which is the most politically correct answer available. He's supposed to be their future, so this is a mess, and the books have already cut his rushing line to 25.5.

Props I'm looking at

• Kaelon Black: If his rushing prop is near 30, I'll find my way onto it. I think he gets 8 to 10 carries.
• Ashton Jeanty: If his receiving line is near 20, I might look, but I want to dig into the snap data first.

Lean: 49ers team total over. Otherwise it's a pretty uninteresting game.

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field

• The line: SEA -11.5 to -13, total 41–42.5. Market-implied score: SEA 26.8, ARI 14.8.
• News: Gardner Minshew starts. Jeremiyah Love and Kendrick Bourne are on IR, Bam Knight is in concussion protocol, and Michael Wilson has two broken ribs. Rashid Shaheed (knee) has a chance to play for Seattle.
• Full matchup page: Cardinals at Seahawks

This was almost a pass, but 13 feels like way too much. Arizona ranks 26th on defense by EPA, but it has looked better lately, including holding the Rams to 16 in the upset. I think the Cardinals blitz and blitz and send help at Jaxon Smith-Njigba, because the rest of Seattle's offense isn't scaring anyone.

Minshew was great at the end of the Dallas win, but he may not have anyone to throw or hand off to, especially if Wilson and Knight sit. Seattle's defense is still incredible, so I see a defensive battle.

Lean: Under 42. I'd love an Arizona team total under if it were up around 17.

Packers at Patriots

Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

• The line: NE -3, total 46.5–47. Market-implied score: NE 24.8, GB 21.8.
• News: Christian Watson (ribs) is sore but doing well, and Josh Jacobs is expected to play. A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) missed Week 8, and Mike Vrabel had no update on Hunter Henry (foot). TreVeyon Henderson should be back.
• Full matchup page: Packers at Patriots

Somehow this is Sunday's game of the day. The Packers are back to looking good, with four wins in five games and the only loss by 3 at Detroit. They had their stinker on national TV and battled back, and the offense looks like it's clicking.

I have questions about New England. The offense is a little beat up, and Brown has 9 catches for 101 yards in his three games. I was expecting this line to be Patriots -1 or a pick'em.

Props I'm looking at

• Matthew Golden: He's had 13, 12 and 13 targets in the last three games, and the props never price it in because his catch rate is below league average, though that might be drop related. I'll more than likely find some overs.

Lean: Packers +3 and the moneyline.

Buccaneers at Bears

Sun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET · Soldier Field

• The line: CHI -6 to -6.5, total 46.5–47.5. Market-implied score: CHI 26.5, TB 20.5.
• News: Emeka Egbuka (foot) is questionable after missing two games. Kyle Monangai is questionable after missing four. Montez Sweat is back for Chicago's defense.
• Full matchup page: Buccaneers at Bears

The Bears look fantastic. Caleb Williams has 860 passing yards in three games since coming back, and we just watched Chicago pick apart Seattle. It's a bit of a short week, but they're back home on Sunday night. Tampa's defense looks unreal, ranking 2nd by EPA, which I did not expect this year.

The Bucs' offense still hasn't clicked. Baker Mayfield went 0-for-3 last week in the rain, one of the funnier stat lines you'll see, and running on Atlanta isn't much of a success story. Egbuka would be a big boost if he's back.

This is a beautiful target tree for Caleb. It's Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze, plus a few D'Andre Swift dump-offs, with Kalif Raymond's role gone.

Props I'm looking at

• Colston Loveland: A ton of targets again (12 and 9) after a horrific start. I'll look at his overs, and I'm fine with tight ends against Tampa.
• Luther Burden III: 64.5 receiving yards is interesting. I'll look at his share closer to game time, although we aren't projecting him well right now.

Lean: Bears -6, with no take on the total. If this gets to -7.5, it's an elite Wong teaser leg to pair with the Panthers.

Bills at Vikings

Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium

• The line: BUF -3 to -3.5, total 45–46.5. Market-implied score: MIN 21.2, BUF 24.2.
• News: Kyler Murray has a sore hamstring and is getting a full evaluation. DJ Moore says he's okay after leaving late with a knee issue. Joshua Palmer (hamstring) is questionable.
• Full matchup page: Bills at Vikings

This is the game of the week on paper: both teams are 6-1. When Buffalo has the ball, it's the best offense against the best defense. Flip it around and it's almost the opposite, Minnesota's 28th-ranked offense against Buffalo's 23rd-ranked defense. I lean to Buffalo's defense there, because Murray hasn't looked great.

If anyone can slow Josh Allen it's this Vikings defense with all its blitz packages, but what Allen does best is create time and find daylight where there isn't any. It's a hard game to break down.

Props I'm looking at

• T.J. Hockenson: Should get his usual 5 to 7 targets.
• Jordan Mason: He has 23 carries to Aaron Jones's 13 since his return, so we know who the lead back is, and Buffalo is middle of the pack against the run. I'll see where the props are priced.

Lean: Bills -3. On a neutral field, -5 feels about right. I'll most likely bet it Monday if anything looks good.

Wrap-up

The ones I like most right now: Packers +3, Texans -4 and Bears -6.

This was written Tuesday, so check the site through the week for updated projections and bets. Projections refresh as injury news comes out of practice, and the rest of my bets go up before kickoff.