The 2026 Division Series: rotations, bullpens and the futures I like

By George Boyle · Oct 2, 2026

Eight teams left, and from here every series comes down to the first three starters and who you trust in the 7th, 8th & 9th. Below I go through all four Division Series: projected starters for Games 1-4, how the bullpens stack up, and how every lineup hits righties and lefties. First, the two futures I like and a lesson from the Wild Card round on pitcher K and outs props.

The big picture

The Dodgers come in as the favorite, but given how their bats have looked down the stretch, I’m not so sure that should be the case. The Padres/Brewers matchup feels like the key to finding good value on a future. White Sox/Guardians will be the highest-variance series of the four, as you never know which White Sox team will show up: the one that plays with blindfolds on or the one that knocked Hunter Brown out in the 1st inning of an elimination game. Lastly, Yankees/Rays is a tale as old as time. I think we see the Yankees win in 4, but all year something about this Tampa team just finds ways to win…

Futures I like

Padres at 11/1 is my favorite future, followed closely by the Yankees at 11/2.

Typically I like to target teams with elite starting pitching, but with how baseball has changed over the years & how early starters come out in the playoffs, give me the best bullpen in baseball with a set of bats that has found its stride. If they can get 4-5 innings from their starters, they will let their bullpen handle the next 4-5 & when needed give Mason Miller the 8th & 9th. He used to be a starter, so I am of the opinion that if it’s close they will throw him every game.

The Yankees future is only because I think so little of the other teams in the AL. White Sox would have been the pick here, but 19/1 is a bit short on a team that will play half its games with blindfolds on. The Yankees’ starting rotation is near the top of the teams remaining & their bullpen is serviceable with their top arms. Their bats coming back to life is just a plus.

I don’t model futures; these are purely from an “I know ball” perspective, as well as motivated by my hate for the Dodgers & how they have ruined baseball.

A Wild Card lesson: pitcher K and outs props

A quick change of direction here: as it has proved profitable so far & in many playoffs before, there is a massive edge in pitcher K & outs props. Allow me to explain with a few examples from just the 2026 Wild Card round.

• Jesús Luzardo in Game 1. In the same breath as saying he was unsure about Luzardo coming off the injury, interim manager Don Mattingly said bullpen games hadn’t worked out for the Phillies & he wasn’t a big fan of them. Luzardo’s K prop opened at 2.5 +130ish, I think, then pushed up to 2.5 -160, & while all of that was going on his outs prop started climbing too. It became increasingly obvious he was going to go as long as he could & Mattingly was going to let him. He ended up going ~80 pitches with 6 Ks. We had the o2.5 -160, o3.5 +127, o4.5 +245, o5.5 +456, & lost the o6.5 +900.
• Kevin Gausman in Game 2. Craig Counsell made a few comments pregame regarding an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. The Cubs’ full bullpen was available as well as all their starters who could chew innings if they got into trouble early. In elimination games, managers have started pulling their starters quicker (I don’t have a stat on this unfortunately, just feels like a growing trend I don’t think we will see stop). We hit Gausman u4.5 -146, u1.5 +1011, & u14.5 outs -150.
• Aaron Nola in Game 3. Same story as the first two: Mattingly said in a pregame presser that everyone was available, including Wheeler for a few innings, so the plan became clear: Nola 3-4 innings, Wheeler 2-3, Duran 1, Bowlan/Alvarado/etc. 1. It just so happened Nola gave up a few early, but we were on the u3.5.

My point: pay attention to how the markets move when there is uncertainty, know who is available in the bullpen (usually everyone in a playoff/elimination game), & be ready for the quick hook on starters.

Pitchers | Starters & Bullpen

Based on projected starters, there are a few pretty clear mismatches.

• Dodgers >>> Braves: Dodgers pitching favored clearly in 2 games; Sale/Skubs is even.
• Brewers > Padres: Brewers SP favored clearly in 1, but it gets pretty even in Games 2, 3 & 4.
• Guardians >> White Sox: Guardians SP favored in every game (can’t believe I am saying that with Tanner Bibee getting a start, but Anthony Kay can’t pitch to righties).
• Yankees >> Rays: Yankees SP favored in 3 of 4, with Cole/Rasmussen the only one that is close.

Bullpens are where the Padres close the gap. Their pen has the best xFIP in baseball (3.75) and has been the best since Aug 1 (3.52). The one trending the right way is the White Sox: 21st by xFIP on the season, but a 3.49 ERA since Aug 1, led by Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA, 41 K in 28 innings since Aug 1) and Grant Taylor (1.84 ERA).

In October the top of the pen gets most of the big innings, so here is each team’s top four relievers (by saves + holds) and their combined 2026 xFIP:

• Padres 2.78: Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Jason Adam, Bradgley Rodríguez
• Brewers 3.25: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, JoJo Romero, Aaron Ashby
• Braves 3.40: Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd
• Rays 3.51: Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Garrett Cleavinger, Tyler Wells
• Dodgers 3.52: Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Edgardo Henriquez, Jack Dreyer
• Yankees 3.65: David Bednar, Brent Headrick, John Schreiber, Paul Blackburn
• White Sox 3.71: Grant Taylor, Bryan Hudson, Sean Newcomb, Huascar Brazobán
• Guardians 3.79: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin

Cleveland is the surprise: 6th as a full bullpen but last of the eight once you narrow it to the top four, with Cade Smith (2.68 xFIP) carrying the group. The White Sox number leaves out Hagen Smith, who has made enough opener starts to fall outside the reliever cut.

Lineups vs righties and lefties

On paper the Dodgers are the only lineup left that’s top 5 against both hands (1st vs RHP, 5th vs LHP), which is a big part of why they’re the favorite, even if I’m still not high on them. Watch the Rays (5th vs RHP, 27th vs LHP) against Fried and Rodón, and Cleveland, which ranks 23rd and 26th.

Series by series

ALDS: White Sox at Guardians

G1 Sat 10/3, 1:00 PM ET @ CLE · G2 Mon 10/5, 5:00 PM @ CLE · G3 Wed 10/7, 4:00 PM @ CWS · G4* Thu 10/8, 5:00 PM @ CWS · G5* Sat 10/10, 5:00 PM @ CLE (* if necessary; times ET, subject to change)

My 2nd favorite Division Series here. I really want to find my way onto the White Sox at +130ish, but it just feels short vs a Cleveland team with a much better rotation & bullpen. The biggest fault of Cleveland is their inability to hit a baseball hard, which feels pretty important, but they started to show a bit more life coming down the stretch with the bats & in the final series vs the Royals when they had to win a few games to win the division & get the 1st round bye.

The White Sox lack starting pitching, but they might be able to make up for it with the bats. Miggy Vargas & Sho-Heavy are having fantastic years, but shockingly it has been more of an all-around team performance down the stretch. I have always been a bit annoyed with teams that PH & platoon as much as the Sox, but it continues to work for them with Benintendi vs righties & Grichuk vs lefties. They are even starting to PH Peters a bit more vs lefties in certain spots, so if you’re betting hitter props, pay attention to that. The easiest way to sum up the White Sox: a young team that believes it can win baseball games, which is a scary opponent come the postseason.

The other point I want to make: the White Sox bullpen is actually good. Looking at the full-season numbers for the bullpen as a whole, it is fairly average, but their top arms have been solid down the stretch (Hagen Smith has a 1.29 ERA with 41 K in 28 innings since Aug 1, and Grant Taylor a 1.84 ERA), so although Cleveland’s pen is one of the best in the league, I don’t view the Sox’s as too far behind, which would have been a wild thing to think a couple months back.

I will more than likely lay off the series bets here & find my way onto some K or outs props on the pitching side. Hitter props are always a bit messy, so I let my projections run those & bet as things pop in the model. Make sure to check out the Props tab on the site to see those projections & EV%.

ALDS: Yankees at Rays

G1 Sat 10/3, 6:30 PM ET @ TB · G2 Mon 10/5, 8:00 PM @ TB · G3 Wed 10/7, 8:00 PM @ NYY · G4* Thu 10/8, 8:00 PM @ NYY · G5* Sat 10/10, 8:00 PM @ TB (* if necessary; times ET, subject to change)

All year I have struggled to believe in this Rays team… They are just a poor man’s Milwaukee in how they play: don’t strike out, get balls in play, steal bases, have good fundamentals & great pitching, but I think they will be outmatched here by the Yankees. This Yankees rotation, led by the likely AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler, is going to be a tall task.

I would be slamming the Yankees if Schlittler were pitching Game 1 on regular rest, as I am just not a believer in Gerrit Cole & shockingly think he is the worst of the bunch the way he gives up hard contact vs lefties, & this Tampa team can put out a lineup with 6 lefty bats, with 2 of their righties being Díaz & Caminero, who are elite bats. I do wish we had seen Boston push this Yankees team a bit more, as I was curious what they would do with the pen.

Not only do I give the pitching edge to the Yankees, but on the bats I also have to side with them. When I was pulling stats for this article, the one that shocked me most was how average the Yankees have been vs righty pitching all year. A lot of it has come from a very average middle of the year when Judge went down injured, & with barely any Stanton all year (24 games), they played most of the season with 3-4 competent bats in the lineup on any given day. I am expecting them to keep the bats going after that series with Boston.

I touched on it briefly, but this Rays team just doesn’t do it for me. Vs RHP they rate out well, which makes sense as they have a lineup full of competent lefty bats, but the Yankees have 2 of the better lefty starters in the league in Rodón & Fried to neutralize them. If the Rays find a way to make this a close series, I think it comes from 1 of 2 places:

• The baseball gods look down on them and give them some fantastic BABIP luck.
• Their pitching holds the Yankees to only a few a game & that is enough to squeak out 3 wins.

Option 1 is the far more likely option…

The pick

Yankees -112 for 1u will be the pick here.

From 1st look at projected lineups, I’m thinking Gerrit Cole u5.5 Ks, Schlittler over Ks, & Rodón over Ks as long as it’s not an elimination game. A lot of things can impact these, so wait for the official plays on the site.

NLDS: Padres at Brewers

G1 Sat 10/3, 8:30 PM ET @ MIL · G2 Sun 10/4, 4:00 PM @ MIL · G3 Tue 10/6, 9:30 PM @ SD · G4* Wed 10/7, 10:00 PM @ SD · G5* Fri 10/9, 4:30 PM @ MIL (* if necessary; times ET, subject to change)

By far my favorite series! This Padres team I wrote off a month or two into the season when Tatis couldn’t hit a home run, but they might be the hottest team in MLB. Jackson Merrill found his stride late. The ghost of Xander Bogaerts is back (how about that insane split grip on the bat?). Tatis is unstoppable currently, but they will have their hands full with Miz & Logan Henderson in Games 1 & 2.

The Brewers did everything possible to preserve Miz’s arm all year, so I’m expecting 100 pitches here, followed by Ashby, Uribe & Megill, which is about as scary as it gets from a pitching perspective.

Expect the Padres to run the same plan they used in Game 2 vs the Cubs: Pivetta went 3.1 innings, then Bradgley Rodríguez, Jason Adam, Adrián Morejón & Mason Miller closed out the last 5.2 without allowing a run. They’re clearly outmatched in the rotation, so as I touched on earlier, this series comes down to the Padres’ bullpen & bats.

The bats are the biggest difference between these two teams. Down the stretch the Brewers started striking out at an alarming clip: Brandon Young struck out 9 of them, Painter 8, Nola 8 & Wheeler 11. They did turn it around against Pallante in the final game of the year, but going into the playoffs with cold bats & then sitting for a week is never a good feeling.

Players to watch

Split-grip Xander Bogaerts! ISO way up (.162 in September vs .105 before).

The pick

Padres +155 @ Kalshi for 1u. Not going too heavy given the future.

If you’re betting the Padres WS future, split it: half down now & half after Game 1. The price will jump to 15/1 or 18/1 after a Game 1 loss vs Miz.

NLDS: Braves at Dodgers

G1 Sat 10/3, 4:00 PM ET @ LAD · G2 Sun 10/4, 8:00 PM @ LAD · G3 Tue 10/6, 6:00 PM @ ATL · G4* Wed 10/7, 6:00 PM @ ATL · G5* Fri 10/9, 8:00 PM @ LAD (* if necessary; times ET, subject to change)

Almost revolted & just skipped this series, but I’ll keep it short & sweet.

I think this is Dodgers in 3, starting with the Game 1 pitching mismatch between Yamamoto & JR Ritchie. In Games 2 & 3, I love lefties vs this current version of the Braves lineup, as Baldwin & Harris have been chasing low & away far too often, & Snell/Skubs will be able to take advantage of that.

The biggest recent downfall of the Dodgers is their inability to hit, but Mookie & Teo got it going in the final month, & I’m expecting the week off to do the rest of the lineup good. It is hard for Ohtani to be any worse than he’s been the last month, so I’m expecting a bit of regression to the mean there.

The only way I see this having a chance for the Braves is a lights-out Sale performance in Game 2 to get the series back home tied 1-1.

The pick

I’ll be on the Dodgers -250 for 2u.

A few K prop spots I like: Yama under Ks, Snell/Skubs over Ks, Sale under Ks. I’ll obviously have to wait on lines, but those are the spots I’m looking at now.

Tools for the Division Series

• MLB Matchups: lineups, starter splits and the bullpen picture for every game.
• MLB Board: every book’s line and total, with movement from the open.
• Props board: player props with the best price on each side.
• Odds calculator: any price to a win probability.
• CLV calculator: check your price against the close after the game.

How we got the numbers

Bullpen xFIP, lineup splits and hitter splits are 2026 regular-season numbers computed by The Sport Stack from Baseball Savant play-by-play, and the counts behind them match MLB’s official stats. xFIP uses this season’s league home-run-per-fly-ball rate and FIP constant, so it sits on the ERA scale; FanGraphs tags batted balls a little differently, so its xFIP can differ slightly. A team’s “top four” relievers are its four with the most saves + holds on the current roster. wOBA is not park-adjusted. Projected starters come from team announcements, beat reporting and each rotation’s rest as of October 1.

Projections and prices are information, not betting advice, and past results don't guarantee future ones. 18+ · play responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER. Questions or corrections: hello@thesportstack.io.