Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Colts 21, Dolphins 18 (market-implied). The market gives the Indianapolis Colts a 63% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Dolphins @ Colts, on one screen.

Dolphins17.5win 37%
Market-implied score
Colts21.0win 63%
SpreadIND -3.5
Total38.5
Moneyline+161 / -193
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Dolphins vs Colts prediction

The market makes Indianapolis Colts a 3.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 38.5.

Moneylines sit at +161 for Miami Dolphins and -193 for Indianapolis Colts, a devigged 63% win probability for Indianapolis Colts; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 17.5 for Miami Dolphins and 21 for Indianapolis Colts.

The spread has moved from IND -2.5 to IND -3.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 42.5 to 38.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 193 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 60 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 223 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, indoors.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Dolphins at Colts — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadIND -3.5 (open IND -2.5)
Total38.5 (open 42.5)
Moneyline (MIA / IND)+161 / -193
IND implied win probability63%
Implied team totals (MIA — IND)17.5 — 21.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Dolphins and Colts this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07
Indianapolis Colts2-74-55-420.427.77

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Colts' last 3 games: L 23-27 vs DAL · L 7-42 @ JAX · L 10-16 @ MIN.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 17.5 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 193 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 60 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 46 rec yds · 3.4 rec
Indianapolis Colts · 21.0 market-implied pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 223 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 69 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Tyler Warren (TE) — 1 rush yds · 48 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Dolphins @ Colts, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Dolphins @ Colts matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule

Colts 2026 schedule