Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium (retractable roof)

Game preview

The market makes Indianapolis Colts a 6.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at +245 for Miami Dolphins and -305 for Indianapolis Colts, a devigged 72% win probability for Indianapolis Colts; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.5 for Miami Dolphins and 27 for Indianapolis Colts.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 234 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards; Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 233 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 87 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Lucas Oil Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Dolphins at Colts — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadIND -6.5
Total47.5
Moneyline (MIA / IND)+245 / -305
IND implied win probability72%
Implied team totals (MIA — IND)20.5 — 27.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 20.5 proj pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 234 pass yds · 28 rush yds
De'Von Achane (RB) — 73 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 46 rec yds · 3.4 rec
Indianapolis Colts · 27.0 proj pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 233 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 87 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Josh Downs (WR) — 50 rec yds · 4.2 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule