Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 10.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 45.3.
Moneylines sit at -722 for Kansas City Chiefs and +500 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 16% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27.9 for Kansas City Chiefs and 17.4 for Miami Dolphins.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 242 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 213 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 77 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium.
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| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -10.5 |
| Total | 45.25 (open 45.5) |
| Moneyline (KC / MIA) | -722 / +500 |
| MIA implied win probability | 16% |
| Implied team totals (KC — MIA) | 27.9 — 17.4 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.