Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Houston Texans a 1.5-point favourite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 42.5.
Moneylines sit at -125 for Houston Texans and +106 for Indianapolis Colts, a devigged 47% win probability for Indianapolis Colts; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Houston Texans and 20.5 for Indianapolis Colts.
The spread has moved from 2.5 to 1.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 44.5 to 42.5.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 275 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, David Montgomery (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 224 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Lucas Oil Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -1.5 (open +2.5) |
| Total | 42.5 (open 44.5) |
| Moneyline (HOU / IND) | -125 / +106 |
| IND implied win probability | 47% |
| Implied team totals (HOU — IND) | 22.0 — 20.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.