Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 6 2026

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · Wembley Stadium · neutral site

Game preview

The market makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 1.5-point favourite over Houston Texans, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at -108 for Houston Texans and -112 for Jacksonville Jaguars, a devigged 50% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.5 for Houston Texans and 22 for Jacksonville Jaguars.

The total has moved from 41 to 42.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 257 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 76 receiving yards; Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 205 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT, at the neutral site Neutral.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Texans at Jaguars — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadJAX -1.5
Total42.5 (open 41)
Moneyline (HOU / JAX)-108 / -112
JAX implied win probability50%
Implied team totals (HOU — JAX)20.5 — 22.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 21.5 proj pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 257 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 2 rush yds · 76 rec yds
David Montgomery (RB) — 52 rush yds · 17 rec yds
Jacksonville Jaguars · 20.0 proj pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 205 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 59 rush yds · 9 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 55 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 6 games

← Week 5 · Week 7 → · Full 2026 schedule