Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium
The market makes Houston Texans a 3.5-point favourite over Tennessee Titans, with the game total at 43.5.
Moneylines sit at -185 for Houston Texans and +154 for Tennessee Titans, a devigged 38% win probability for Tennessee Titans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Houston Texans and 20 for Tennessee Titans.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 265 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 81 receiving yards; Tennessee Titans — Cam Ward (QB) at 195 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Tony Pollard (RB) at 50 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Nissan Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -3.5 |
| Total | 43.5 |
| Moneyline (HOU / TEN) | -185 / +154 |
| TEN implied win probability | 38% |
| Implied team totals (HOU — TEN) | 23.5 — 20.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.