Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · State Farm Stadium (retractable roof)

Game preview

The market makes Detroit Lions a 8.5-point favourite over Arizona Cardinals, with the game total at 48.5.

Moneylines sit at -395 for Detroit Lions and +310 for Arizona Cardinals, a devigged 23% win probability for Arizona Cardinals; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 28.5 for Detroit Lions and 20 for Arizona Cardinals.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 271 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 100 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards; Arizona Cardinals — Jacoby Brissett (QB) at 245 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Jeremiyah Love (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at State Farm Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Lions at Cardinals — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -8.5
Total48.5
Moneyline (DET / ARI)-395 / +310
ARI implied win probability23%
Implied team totals (DET — ARI)28.5 — 20.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Detroit Lions · 28.5 proj pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 271 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 100 rush yds · 35 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 87 rec yds · 7.4 rec
Arizona Cardinals · 20.0 proj pts
Jacoby Brissett (QB) — 245 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Jeremiyah Love (RB) — 47 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Trey McBride (TE) — 69 rec yds · 6.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

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