Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Detroit Lions a 3.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 48.5.
Moneylines sit at -185 for Detroit Lions and +154 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 38% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26 for Detroit Lions and 22.5 for Atlanta Falcons.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 278 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 89 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 249 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 89 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors, Detroit Lions take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | DET -3.5 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Moneyline (DET / ATL) | -185 / +154 |
| ATL implied win probability | 38% |
| Implied team totals (DET — ATL) | 26.0 — 22.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.