Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 13 2026

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Lions 26, Falcons 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Detroit Lions a 62% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Lions @ Falcons, on one screen.

Lions26.0win 62%
Market-implied score
Falcons22.5win 38%
SpreadDET -3.5
Total48.5
Moneyline-185 / +154
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Lions vs Falcons prediction

The market makes Detroit Lions a 3.5-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 48.5.

Moneylines sit at -185 for Detroit Lions and +154 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 38% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26 for Detroit Lions and 22.5 for Atlanta Falcons.

The total has moved from 47.5 to 48.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 250 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 104 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 246 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 87 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors, Detroit Lions take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Lions at Falcons — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -3.5 (open DET -3.25)
Total48.5 (open 47.5)
Moneyline (DET / ATL)-185 / +154
ATL implied win probability38%
Implied team totals (DET — ATL)26.0 — 22.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Lions and Falcons this season

Games before Week 13. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.610
Atlanta Falcons3-63-64-520.924.87

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Falcons' last 3 games: L 17-34 vs CIN · L 0-16 @ TB · W 29-20 vs SF.

Player projections

Detroit Lions · 26.0 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 250 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 104 rush yds · 29 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 84 rec yds
Atlanta Falcons · 22.5 market-implied pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 246 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 87 rush yds · 33 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 1 rush yds · 76 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Lions @ Falcons, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 13 games

← Week 12 · Week 14 → · Full 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule

Falcons 2026 schedule