Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium
The market makes Washington Commanders a 3.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at +154 for Atlanta Falcons and -185 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 62% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for Atlanta Falcons and 25 for Washington Commanders.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 224 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 87 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 227 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Northwest Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | WAS -3.5 |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline (ATL / WAS) | +154 / -185 |
| WAS implied win probability | 62% |
| Implied team totals (ATL — WAS) | 21.5 — 25.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.