Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Vikings 24, Commanders 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Minnesota Vikings a 55% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Commanders @ Vikings, on one screen.

Commanders22.4win 45%
Market-implied score
Vikings24.4win 55%
SpreadMIN -2
Total46.75
Moneyline+110 / -135
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Commanders vs Vikings prediction

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 2-point favorite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 46.75.

Moneylines sit at +110 for Washington Commanders and -135 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 55% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.4 for Washington Commanders and 24.4 for Minnesota Vikings.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 210 passing yards and 36 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 43 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 219 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Justin Jefferson (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 68 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Commanders at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -2
Total46.75
Moneyline (WAS / MIN)+110 / -135
MIN implied win probability55%
Implied team totals (WAS — MIN)22.4 — 24.4

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Commanders and Vikings this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.37
Minnesota Vikings6-24-41-718.314.57

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Vikings' last 3 games: L 6-23 vs BUF · L 15-19 @ DET · W 16-10 vs IND.

Player projections

Washington Commanders · 22.4 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 210 pass yds · 36 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 43 rush yds · 16 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 51 rec yds · 4.6 rec
Minnesota Vikings · 24.4 market-implied pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 219 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 1 rush yds · 68 rec yds
Jordan Mason (RB) — 52 rush yds · 8 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Commanders @ Vikings, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Commanders @ Vikings matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule

Vikings 2026 schedule