Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

Game preview

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 2.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 46.5.

Moneylines sit at +114 for Washington Commanders and -135 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 55% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Washington Commanders and 24.5 for Minnesota Vikings.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 220 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 7 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 198 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 76 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Commanders at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -2.5
Total46.5
Moneyline (WAS / MIN)+114 / -135
MIN implied win probability55%
Implied team totals (WAS — MIN)22.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Washington Commanders · 22.0 proj pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 220 pass yds · 37 rush yds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) — 55 rush yds · 7 rec yds
Terry McLaurin (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.0 rec
Minnesota Vikings · 24.5 proj pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 198 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Aaron Jones (RB) — 76 rush yds · 10 rec yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 63 rec yds · 4.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule