Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Thursday, December 24, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field

Prediction: Eagles 20, Texans 18 (market-implied). The market gives the Philadelphia Eagles a 55% chance to win. · Updated

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Texans17.8win 45%
Market-implied score
Eagles20.3win 55%
SpreadPHI -2.5
Total38
Moneyline+112 / -132
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Texans vs Eagles prediction

The market makes Philadelphia Eagles a 2.5-point favorite over Houston Texans, with the game total at 38.

Moneylines sit at +112 for Houston Texans and -132 for Philadelphia Eagles, a devigged 55% win probability for Philadelphia Eagles; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 17.8 for Houston Texans and 20.3 for Philadelphia Eagles.

The total has moved from 37.5 to 38.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 218 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Philadelphia Eagles — Joe Milton III (QB) at 230 passing yards and 43 rushing yards, Saquon Barkley (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, December 24, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at Lincoln Financial Field.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Texans at Eagles — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadPHI -2.5
Total38 (open 37.5)
Moneyline (HOU / PHI)+112 / -132
PHI implied win probability55%
Implied team totals (HOU — PHI)17.8 — 20.3

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Texans and Eagles this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.04
Philadelphia Eagles2-71-84-516.424.65

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Eagles' last 3 games: L 11-19 vs NYG · L 10-27 @ WAS · L 21-38 vs DAL.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 17.8 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 218 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 47 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 50 rec yds
Philadelphia Eagles · 20.3 market-implied pts
Joe Milton III (QB) — 230 pass yds · 43 rush yds
Saquon Barkley (RB) — 61 rush yds · 11 rec yds
DeVonta Smith (WR) — 62 rec yds · 5.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Texans @ Eagles, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule

Eagles 2026 schedule