Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium (retractable roof)

Game preview

The market makes Houston Texans a 3-point favourite over Jacksonville Jaguars, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +130 for Jacksonville Jaguars and -155 for Houston Texans, a devigged 58% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.3 for Jacksonville Jaguars and 23.3 for Houston Texans.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 208 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 260 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 77 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Reliant Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Jaguars at Texans — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -3
Total43.5
Moneyline (JAX / HOU)+130 / -155
HOU implied win probability58%
Implied team totals (JAX — HOU)20.3 — 23.3

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Jacksonville Jaguars · 20.3 proj pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 208 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 58 rush yds · 9 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 60 rec yds
Houston Texans · 23.3 proj pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 260 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 2 rush yds · 77 rec yds
David Montgomery (RB) — 52 rush yds · 16 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule