Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 58% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Jaguars @ Texans, on one screen.

Jaguars20.3win 42%
Market-implied score
Texans23.3win 58%
SpreadHOU -3
Total43.5
Moneyline+130 / -155
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Jaguars vs Texans prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 3-point favorite over Jacksonville Jaguars, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +130 for Jacksonville Jaguars and -155 for Houston Texans, a devigged 58% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.3 for Jacksonville Jaguars and 23.3 for Houston Texans.

The total has moved from 43 to 43.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 233 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 62 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 234 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 48 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at NRG Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Jaguars at Texans — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -3
Total43.5 (open 43)
Moneyline (JAX / HOU)+130 / -155
HOU implied win probability58%
Implied team totals (JAX — HOU)20.3 — 23.3

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Jaguars and Texans this season

Games before Week 15. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Jacksonville Jaguars6-25-34-428.615.16
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.07

Jaguars' last 3 games: W 33-10 @ BAL · W 42-7 vs IND · L 31-34 vs HOU.

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Player projections

Jacksonville Jaguars · 20.3 market-implied pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 233 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 62 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 56 rec yds
Houston Texans · 23.3 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 234 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 48 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 52 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Jaguars @ Texans, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Jaguars @ Texans matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule

Jaguars 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule