Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Houston Texans a 2.5-point favourite over Dallas Cowboys, with the game total at 47.5.
Moneylines sit at +125 for Dallas Cowboys and -152 for Houston Texans, a devigged 58% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Dallas Cowboys and 25 for Houston Texans.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 242 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Javonte Williams (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 275 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 83 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Reliant Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -2.5 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Moneyline (DAL / HOU) | +125 / -152 |
| HOU implied win probability | 58% |
| Implied team totals (DAL — HOU) | 22.5 — 25.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.