Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · AT&T Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Dallas Cowboys a 3.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 52.5.
Moneylines sit at +170 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and -205 for Dallas Cowboys, a devigged 64% win probability for Dallas Cowboys; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 28 for Dallas Cowboys.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 237 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards; Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 251 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Javonte Williams (RB) at 53 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at AT&T Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -3.5 |
| Total | 52.5 |
| Moneyline (TB / DAL) | +170 / -205 |
| DAL implied win probability | 64% |
| Implied team totals (TB — DAL) | 24.5 — 28.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.