Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · AT&T Stadium (retractable roof)

Game preview

The market makes Dallas Cowboys a 3.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 52.5.

Moneylines sit at +170 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and -205 for Dallas Cowboys, a devigged 64% win probability for Dallas Cowboys; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 28 for Dallas Cowboys.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 237 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards; Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 251 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Javonte Williams (RB) at 53 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at AT&T Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Buccaneers at Cowboys — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadDAL -3.5
Total52.5
Moneyline (TB / DAL)+170 / -205
DAL implied win probability64%
Implied team totals (TB — DAL)24.5 — 28.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 24.5 proj pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 237 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 58 rush yds · 24 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 50 rec yds
Dallas Cowboys · 28.0 proj pts
Dak Prescott (QB) — 251 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Javonte Williams (RB) — 53 rush yds · 20 rec yds
CeeDee Lamb (WR) — 2 rush yds · 70 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule