Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Pittsburgh Steelers a 2.5-point favourite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at +120 for Indianapolis Colts and -142 for Pittsburgh Steelers, a devigged 56% win probability for Pittsburgh Steelers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Indianapolis Colts and 25 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 219 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 198 passing yards and 6 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Steelers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Colts at Steelers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadPIT -2.5
Total47.5
Moneyline (IND / PIT)+120 / -142
PIT implied win probability56%
Implied team totals (IND — PIT)22.5 — 25.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Indianapolis Colts · 22.5 proj pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 219 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 82 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Josh Downs (WR) — 47 rec yds · 4.1 rec
Pittsburgh Steelers · 25.0 proj pts
Aaron Rodgers (QB) — 198 pass yds · 6 rush yds
Jaylen Warren (RB) — 49 rush yds · 25 rec yds
DK Metcalf (WR) — 66 rec yds · 4.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

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