Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 4.8-point favourite over Pittsburgh Steelers, with the game total at 41.3.
Moneylines sit at +189 for Pittsburgh Steelers and -227 for New England Patriots, a devigged 67% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 18.3 for Pittsburgh Steelers and 23 for New England Patriots.
The total has moved from 43.5 to 41.3.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 168 passing yards and 6 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 215 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 60 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium, New England Patriots take the extra rest, 11 days to 7.
Final: New England Patriots won 20-3 (home, under).
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ATS: home. Total: under.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -4.75 (open -4.5) |
| Total | 41.25 (open 43.5) |
| Moneyline (PIT / NE) | +189 / -227 |
| NE implied win probability | 67% |
| Implied team totals (PIT — NE) | 18.3 — 23.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.