Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 2.5-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 42.5.
Moneylines sit at +114 for Denver Broncos and -135 for New England Patriots, a devigged 55% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for Denver Broncos and 22.5 for New England Patriots.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 193 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 7 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 209 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 48 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium, Denver Broncos take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -2.5 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Moneyline (DEN / NE) | +114 / -135 |
| NE implied win probability | 55% |
| Implied team totals (DEN — NE) | 20.0 — 22.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.