Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 23, Broncos 20 (market-implied). The market gives the New England Patriots a 56% chance to win. · Updated

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Broncos19.9win 44%
Market-implied score
Patriots22.6win 56%
SpreadNE -2.75
Total42.5
Moneyline+117 / -142
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Broncos vs Patriots prediction

The market makes New England Patriots a 2.75-point favorite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at +117 for Denver Broncos and -142 for New England Patriots, a devigged 56% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.9 for Denver Broncos and 22.6 for New England Patriots.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 198 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Jonah Coleman (RB) at 44 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 235 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium, Denver Broncos take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Broncos at Patriots — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -2.75
Total42.5
Moneyline (DEN / NE)+117 / -142
NE implied win probability56%
Implied team totals (DEN — NE)19.9 — 22.6

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Broncos and Patriots this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Denver Broncos7-27-24-522.020.79
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.07

Broncos' last 3 games: W 26-21 @ CAR · W 28-24 vs KC · W 30-16 @ ARI.

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Player projections

Denver Broncos · 19.9 market-implied pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 198 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Jonah Coleman (RB) — 44 rush yds · 20 rec yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 39 rush yds · 8 rec yds
New England Patriots · 22.6 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 235 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 47 rush yds · 20 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 53 rec yds · 4.4 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Broncos @ Patriots, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Broncos 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule