Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 14 2026

Thursday, December 10, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 24, Vikings 19 (market-implied). The market gives the New England Patriots a 67% chance to win. · Updated

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Vikings19.0win 33%
Market-implied score
Patriots24.0win 67%
SpreadNE -5
Total43
Moneyline+190 / -233
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Vikings vs Patriots prediction

The market makes New England Patriots a 5-point favorite over Minnesota Vikings, with the game total at 43.

Moneylines sit at +190 for Minnesota Vikings and -233 for New England Patriots, a devigged 67% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19 for Minnesota Vikings and 24 for New England Patriots.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 193 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Justin Jefferson (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 226 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, December 10, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Vikings at Patriots — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -5
Total43
Moneyline (MIN / NE)+190 / -233
NE implied win probability67%
Implied team totals (MIN — NE)19.0 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Vikings and Patriots this season

Games before Week 14. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Minnesota Vikings6-24-41-718.314.54
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.04

Vikings' last 3 games: L 6-23 vs BUF · L 15-19 @ DET · W 16-10 vs IND.

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Player projections

Minnesota Vikings · 19.0 market-implied pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 193 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 1 rush yds · 59 rec yds
Jordan Mason (RB) — 48 rush yds · 8 rec yds
New England Patriots · 24.0 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 226 pass yds · 27 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 47 rush yds · 17 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.3 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Vikings @ Patriots, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 14 games

← Week 13 · Week 15 → · Full 2026 schedule

Vikings 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule