New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · FC Bayern Munich Stadium (indoors) · neutral site

Game preview

The market makes Detroit Lions a 1.3-point favourite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 49.

Moneylines sit at +100 for New England Patriots and -120 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 52% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.9 for New England Patriots and 25.1 for Detroit Lions.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 257 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 259 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 90 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT, at the neutral site Neutral, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Patriots at Lions — lines as of Tue, 9/8 · 3:01 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -1.25 (open -1.5)
Total49
Moneyline (NE / DET)+100 / -120
DET implied win probability52%
Implied team totals (NE — DET)23.9 — 25.1

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 24.5 proj pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 257 pass yds · 30 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 47 rush yds · 25 rec yds
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) — 46 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 25.0 proj pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 259 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 90 rush yds · 36 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 88 rec yds · 7.9 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule