Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field (indoors)

Game preview

The market makes Detroit Lions a 4.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +185 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and -225 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 66% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 27 for Detroit Lions.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 250 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 273 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 89 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Ford Field, indoors, Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Buccaneers at Lions — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -4.5
Total49.5
Moneyline (TB / DET)+185 / -225
DET implied win probability66%
Implied team totals (TB — DET)22.5 — 27.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 21.0 proj pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 250 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 58 rush yds · 28 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 51 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 25.5 proj pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 273 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 89 rush yds · 35 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 93 rec yds · 7.8 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

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