Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 4:25 PM ET · Soldier Field

Prediction: Bears 26, Lions 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Chicago Bears a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Lions @ Bears, on one screen.

Lions24.0win 47%
Market-implied score
Bears25.5win 53%
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total49.5
Moneyline+105 / -125
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Lions vs Bears prediction

The market makes Chicago Bears a 1.5-point favorite over Detroit Lions, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +105 for Detroit Lions and -125 for Chicago Bears, a devigged 53% win probability for Chicago Bears; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Detroit Lions and 25.5 for Chicago Bears.

The total has moved from 49 to 49.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 256 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 95 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards; Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 263 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 4:25 PM ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago Bears take the extra rest, 9 days to 6.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Lions at Bears — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total49.5 (open 49)
Moneyline (DET / CHI)+105 / -125
CHI implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (DET — CHI)24.0 — 25.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Lions and Bears this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.66
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.49

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Player projections

Detroit Lions · 24.0 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 256 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 95 rush yds · 30 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 87 rec yds
Chicago Bears · 25.5 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 263 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 56 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 2 rush yds · 65 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Lions @ Bears, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule