Washington Commanders @ Jacksonville Jaguars — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 3.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 48.5.

Moneylines sit at +154 for Washington Commanders and -185 for Jacksonville Jaguars, a devigged 62% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Washington Commanders and 26 for Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 218 passing yards and 36 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 222 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at EverBank Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Commanders at Jaguars — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadJAX -3.5
Total48.5
Moneyline (WAS / JAX)+154 / -185
JAX implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (WAS — JAX)22.5 — 26.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Washington Commanders · 22.5 proj pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 218 pass yds · 36 rush yds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) — 55 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Terry McLaurin (WR) — 52 rec yds · 3.9 rec
Jacksonville Jaguars · 26.0 proj pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 222 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 61 rush yds · 9 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 63 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule