Washington Commanders @ Jacksonville Jaguars — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium

Prediction: Jaguars 26, Commanders 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 62% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Commanders @ Jaguars, on one screen.

Commanders22.5win 38%
Market-implied score
Jaguars26.0win 62%
SpreadJAX -3.5
Total48.5
Moneyline+154 / -185
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Commanders vs Jaguars prediction

The market makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 3.5-point favorite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 48.5.

Moneylines sit at +154 for Washington Commanders and -185 for Jacksonville Jaguars, a devigged 62% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Washington Commanders and 26 for Jacksonville Jaguars.

The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 226 passing yards and 36 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 42 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards; Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 249 passing yards and 15 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 66 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at EverBank Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Commanders at Jaguars — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadJAX -3.5 (open JAX -3.25)
Total48.5 (open 49)
Moneyline (WAS / JAX)+154 / -185
JAX implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (WAS — JAX)22.5 — 26.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Commanders and Jaguars this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.37
Jacksonville Jaguars6-25-34-428.615.17

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Jaguars' last 3 games: W 33-10 @ BAL · W 42-7 vs IND · L 31-34 vs HOU.

Player projections

Washington Commanders · 22.5 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 226 pass yds · 36 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 42 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 55 rec yds · 4.8 rec
Jacksonville Jaguars · 26.0 market-implied pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 249 pass yds · 15 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 66 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 61 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Commanders @ Jaguars, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Commanders @ Jaguars matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule

Jaguars 2026 schedule