Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 3 2026

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Seattle Seahawks a 7.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 40.3.

Moneylines sit at -377 for Seattle Seahawks and +300 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 24% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.9 for Seattle Seahawks and 16.4 for Washington Commanders.

The spread has moved from 6.5 to 7.5 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Seattle Seahawks — Sam Darnold (QB) at 218 passing yards and 7 rushing yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 82 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Marcus Mariota (QB) at 211 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Northwest Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Seahawks at Commanders — lines as of Sat, 9/26 · 2:55 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadSEA -7.5 (open +6.5)
Total40.25 (open 40.5)
Moneyline (SEA / WAS)-377 / +300
WAS implied win probability24%
Implied team totals (SEA — WAS)23.9 — 16.4

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Seattle Seahawks · 23.8 proj pts
Sam Darnold (QB) — 218 pass yds · 7 rush yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) — 1 rush yds · 82 rec yds
Jadarian Price (RB) — 58 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 16.3 proj pts
Marcus Mariota (QB) — 211 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) — 58 rush yds · 9 rec yds
Terry McLaurin (WR) — 52 rec yds · 4.1 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 3 games

← Week 2 · Week 4 → · Full 2026 schedule