Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Commanders 26, Cardinals 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Washington Commanders a 65% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Commanders @ Cardinals, on one screen.

Commanders25.9win 65%
Market-implied score
Cardinals21.6win 35%
SpreadWAS -4.25
Total47.5
Moneyline-214 / +170
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Commanders vs Cardinals prediction

The market makes Washington Commanders a 4.25-point favorite over Arizona Cardinals, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at -214 for Washington Commanders and +170 for Arizona Cardinals, a devigged 35% win probability for Arizona Cardinals; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25.9 for Washington Commanders and 21.6 for Arizona Cardinals.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 226 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; Arizona Cardinals — Gardner Minshew (QB) at 263 passing yards and 7 rushing yards, Trey McBride (TE) at 81 receiving yards and 7.9 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET, at State Farm Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Commanders at Cardinals — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadWAS -4.25
Total47.5
Moneyline (WAS / ARI)-214 / +170
ARI implied win probability35%
Implied team totals (WAS — ARI)25.9 — 21.6

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Commanders and Cardinals this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.36
Arizona Cardinals3-64-55-419.828.37

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Cardinals' last 3 games: L 3-17 @ SEA · W 33-30 @ DAL · L 16-30 vs DEN.

Player projections

Washington Commanders · 25.9 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 226 pass yds · 37 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 46 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.7 rec
Arizona Cardinals · 21.6 market-implied pts
Gardner Minshew (QB) — 263 pass yds · 7 rush yds
Trey McBride (TE) — 81 rec yds · 7.9 rec
Tyler Allgeier (RB) — 58 rush yds · 18 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Commanders @ Cardinals, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Commanders @ Cardinals matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule

Cardinals 2026 schedule