Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Friday, November 27, 2026 · 3:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium

Prediction: Broncos 21, Steelers 19 (market-implied). The market gives the Denver Broncos a 52% chance to win. · Updated

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Broncos20.5win 52%
Market-implied score
Steelers19.0win 48%
SpreadDEN -1.5
Total39.5
Moneyline-118 / -101
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Broncos vs Steelers prediction

The market makes Denver Broncos a 1.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh Steelers, with the game total at 39.5.

Moneylines sit at -118 for Denver Broncos and -101 for Pittsburgh Steelers, a devigged 48% win probability for Pittsburgh Steelers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.5 for Denver Broncos and 19 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 206 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Jonah Coleman (RB) at 45 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 167 passing yards and 5 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 65 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Friday, November 27, 2026 · 3:00 PM ET, at Acrisure Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Broncos at Steelers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDEN -1.5
Total39.5
Moneyline (DEN / PIT)-118 / -101
PIT implied win probability48%
Implied team totals (DEN — PIT)20.5 — 19.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Broncos and Steelers this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Denver Broncos7-27-24-522.020.75
Pittsburgh Steelers6-26-24-422.518.05

Broncos' last 3 games: W 26-21 @ CAR · W 28-24 vs KC · W 30-16 @ ARI.

Steelers' last 3 games: W 27-6 vs CLE · W 16-10 @ NO · W 26-19 @ TB.

Player projections

Denver Broncos · 20.5 market-implied pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 206 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Jonah Coleman (RB) — 45 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Jaylen Waddle (WR) — 1 rush yds · 47 rec yds
Pittsburgh Steelers · 19.0 market-implied pts
Aaron Rodgers (QB) — 167 pass yds · 5 rush yds
Jaylen Warren (RB) — 65 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Rico Dowdle (RB) — 36 rush yds · 13 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Broncos @ Steelers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Broncos 2026 schedule

Steelers 2026 schedule