New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · SoFi Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Chargers 24, Patriots 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 56% chance to win. · Updated

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Patriots21.8win 44%
Market-implied score
Chargers24.0win 56%
SpreadLAC -2.25
Total45.75
Moneyline+120 / -144
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Patriots vs Chargers prediction

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 2.25-point favorite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 45.75.

Moneylines sit at +120 for New England Patriots and -144 for Los Angeles Chargers, a devigged 56% win probability for Los Angeles Chargers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.8 for New England Patriots and 24 for Los Angeles Chargers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 237 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards; Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 214 passing yards and 23 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 53 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, indoors, New England Patriots take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Patriots at Chargers — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -2.25
Total45.75
Moneyline (NE / LAC)+120 / -144
LAC implied win probability56%
Implied team totals (NE — LAC)21.8 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Patriots and Chargers this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.014
Los Angeles Chargers0-80-7-12-615.127.47

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Chargers' last 3 games: L 22-44 vs HOU · L 9-24 @ LA · L 6-22 @ KC.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 21.8 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 237 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 49 rush yds · 18 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 56 rec yds · 4.3 rec
Los Angeles Chargers · 24.0 market-implied pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 214 pass yds · 23 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 53 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 42 rec yds · 3.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Patriots @ Chargers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule

Chargers 2026 schedule