Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 7-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at -355 for New England Patriots and +280 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 25% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26.3 for New England Patriots and 19.3 for Miami Dolphins.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 228 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 211 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 70 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium, New England Patriots take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -7 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (NE / MIA) | -355 / +280 |
| MIA implied win probability | 25% |
| Implied team totals (NE — MIA) | 26.3 — 19.3 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.