NFL Power Ratings

Fundamental team ratings with offense and defense splits, and the implied spread for any matchup.

Ratings as of 2026-09-26 · unit columns from the 2026 season
Matchup predictor@BUF -0.3 · KC wins 49% (+3.7 vs +5.8, +1.8 HFA)
#TeamOverallOffDefPassingRushingProtectionPass DRun DPass rush
1SEASeahawks+9.1
25.716.7+0.483-0.1695.6%-0.046-0.4036.8%
2BUFBills+5.8
27.722.0+0.690+0.0615.7%+0.493-0.0588.1%
3LARams+5.2
25.720.7+0.170-0.1221.6%-0.162-0.0422.9%
4SF49ers+5.1
26.121.2+0.581-0.0170.0%-0.028-0.1097.0%
5BALRavens+4.3
25.321.1+0.514+0.1767.6%+0.138+0.0126.8%
6NEPatriots+4.1
23.619.6-0.033-0.2078.7%+0.028-0.1118.2%
7KCChiefs+3.7
24.821.2+0.291+0.1994.8%+0.003+0.1036.1%
8JAXJaguars+3.6
24.320.8+0.466+0.0285.4%+0.187-0.0858.2%
9DETLions+3.4
25.622.3+0.357-0.0855.9%+0.399+0.1217.0%
10CHIBears+3.1
24.821.8+0.400+0.0117.6%+0.404-0.1367.5%
11PHIEagles+2.3
22.920.7+0.399-0.1408.0%+0.284+0.0214.8%
12HOUTexans+1.8
21.519.8+0.170-0.2396.8%+0.424-0.23810.3%
13DENBroncos+1.2
22.421.4+0.076-0.0706.3%+0.058+0.2036.3%
14MINVikings+1.0
20.920.1+0.236-0.13811.1%+0.176-0.3399.2%
15CINBengals+0.6
23.422.9+0.117-0.0758.2%+0.164-0.3618.2%
16GBPackers-0.6
22.623.3+0.103-0.4106.1%+0.347-0.0346.8%
17INDColts-0.7
22.923.6-0.023+0.1593.0%+0.512+0.1345.0%
18TBBuccaneers-0.8
21.322.3-0.020+0.0389.2%+0.230-0.2094.2%
19DALCowboys-0.9
24.425.4+0.529-0.1252.8%+0.440-0.0022.7%
20NOSaints-1.3
21.022.4+0.349-0.0727.9%+0.166+0.0445.1%
21CARPanthers-2.0
22.024.1+0.491-0.1524.9%+0.027+0.0516.5%
22ATLFalcons-2.5
20.423.0-0.176+0.0447.8%+0.125-0.2343.7%
23PITSteelers-2.6
19.322.0-0.176-0.1566.7%-0.206-0.04713.2%
24LACChargers-2.8
19.422.3+0.061-0.4509.1%+0.287-0.2334.2%
25NYJJets-3.6
19.523.2+0.386-0.1875.4%-0.027-0.3188.5%
26ARICardinals-3.8
20.224.1+0.135-0.1694.3%+0.310-0.2306.5%
27WASCommanders-3.9
20.924.9+0.219-0.0641.3%+0.505-0.1747.2%
28LVRaiders-3.9
19.023.0+0.160-0.2453.2%+0.047-0.44411.8%
29CLEBrowns-5.3
18.123.5+0.219-0.33810.8%+0.230+0.0056.2%
30MIADolphins-5.6
18.724.4+0.163-0.13613.8%+0.540-0.1370.0%
31NYGGiants-6.5
17.624.2+0.116-0.0766.0%+0.558-0.0361.5%
32TENTitans-7.5
17.425.1+0.093+0.0427.9%+0.425-0.0614.4%
Overall = points better (+) or worse (−) than average on a neutral field; two teams' gap + +1.8 home-field = our predicted spread. Off, Def and the unit columns are colored by league rank (hover for the rank); grouped views show the rank within the group and the league rank in parentheses.

Team ratings from an efficiency model — offense and defense rated separately on the point-spread scale, adjusted for every opponent faced, with the starting quarterback rated on his own — with a predictor that converts them into an implied spread and win probability for any matchup. Unit sub-ratings are descriptive season aggregates. Market-free by design and validated against closing spreads out of sample.

What these numbers mean: how sportsbooks set lines · model calibration.