Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium
The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 4.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at +180 for Atlanta Falcons and -218 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 66% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for Atlanta Falcons and 25.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 220 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 80 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 230 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | TB -4.5 |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline (ATL / TB) | +180 / -218 |
| TB implied win probability | 66% |
| Implied team totals (ATL — TB) | 21.0 — 25.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.