Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 4.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at -205 for Kansas City Chiefs and +170 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 36% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25 for Kansas City Chiefs and 20.5 for Atlanta Falcons.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 243 passing yards and 22 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 76 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 210 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 88 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -4.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (KC / ATL) | -205 / +170 |
| ATL implied win probability | 36% |
| Implied team totals (KC — ATL) | 25.0 — 20.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.