Monday, September 14, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 2-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 42.5.
Moneylines sit at +110 for Denver Broncos and -129 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 54% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20.3 for Denver Broncos and 22.3 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The spread has moved from -2.5 to -2 since it opened and the total has moved from 43.5 to 42.5.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 211 passing yards and 18 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 207 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Monday, September 14, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Final: Kansas City Chiefs won 31-10 (home, under).
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
ATS: home. Total: under.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -2 (open -2.5) |
| Total | 42.5 (open 43.5) |
| Moneyline (DEN / KC) | +110 / -129 |
| KC implied win probability | 54% |
| Implied team totals (DEN — KC) | 20.3 — 22.3 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.