Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 4 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium

Game preview

The market makes San Francisco 49ers a 3-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 46.

Moneylines sit at +128 for Denver Broncos and -155 for San Francisco 49ers, a devigged 58% win probability for San Francisco 49ers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for Denver Broncos and 24.5 for San Francisco 49ers.

The total has moved from 46.5 to 46.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 195 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 217 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at Levi's Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Broncos at 49ers — lines as of Sat, 9/26 · 3:10 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadSF -3
Total46 (open 46.5)
Moneyline (DEN / SF)+128 / -155
SF implied win probability58%
Implied team totals (DEN — SF)21.5 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Denver Broncos · 21.5 proj pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 195 pass yds · 16 rush yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 49 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Jaylen Waddle (WR) — 51 rec yds · 3.9 rec
San Francisco 49ers · 24.5 proj pts
Brock Purdy (QB) — 217 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Christian McCaffrey (RB) — 49 rush yds · 34 rec yds
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR) — 5 rush yds · 39 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule