Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium
The market makes San Francisco 49ers a 3-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 46.
Moneylines sit at +128 for Denver Broncos and -155 for San Francisco 49ers, a devigged 58% win probability for San Francisco 49ers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for Denver Broncos and 24.5 for San Francisco 49ers.
The total has moved from 46.5 to 46.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 195 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 217 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at Levi's Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | SF -3 |
| Total | 46 (open 46.5) |
| Moneyline (DEN / SF) | +128 / -155 |
| SF implied win probability | 58% |
| Implied team totals (DEN — SF) | 21.5 — 24.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.