New York Jets @ Chicago Bears — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 4 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field

Game preview

The market makes Chicago Bears a 3.5-point favourite over New York Jets, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +150 for New York Jets and -182 for Chicago Bears, a devigged 62% win probability for Chicago Bears; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for New York Jets and 23.5 for Chicago Bears.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 207 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 63 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards; Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 223 passing yards and 25 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Soldier Field.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Jets at Bears — lines as of Sat, 9/26 · 3:15 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadCHI -3.5
Total43.5
Moneyline (NYJ / CHI)+150 / -182
CHI implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (NYJ — CHI)20.0 — 23.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

New York Jets · 20.0 proj pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 207 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 63 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Garrett Wilson (WR) — 61 rec yds · 4.9 rec
Chicago Bears · 23.5 proj pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 223 pass yds · 25 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 56 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Kyle Monangai (RB) — 34 rush yds · 12 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule