Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · Lambeau Field

Game preview

The market makes Green Bay Packers a 3-point favourite over Chicago Bears, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +140 for Chicago Bears and -166 for Green Bay Packers, a devigged 60% win probability for Green Bay Packers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.3 for Chicago Bears and 26.3 for Green Bay Packers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 234 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 64 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 255 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 72 receiving yards and 4.7 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at Lambeau Field.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Bears at Packers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadGB -3
Total49.5
Moneyline (CHI / GB)+140 / -166
GB implied win probability60%
Implied team totals (CHI — GB)23.3 — 26.3

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 23.3 proj pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 234 pass yds · 27 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 64 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Kyle Monangai (RB) — 39 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Green Bay Packers · 26.3 proj pts
Jordan Love (QB) — 255 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Christian Watson (WR) — 72 rec yds · 4.7 rec
Matthew Golden (WR) — 52 rec yds · 3.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule