Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

Prediction: Bills 28, Bears 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 62% chance to win. · Updated

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Bears24.0win 38%
Market-implied score
Bills27.5win 62%
SpreadBUF -3.5
Total51.5
Moneyline+154 / -185
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bears vs Bills prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 3.5-point favorite over Chicago Bears, with the game total at 51.5.

Moneylines sit at +154 for Chicago Bears and -185 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 62% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Chicago Bears and 27.5 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 234 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 245 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 85 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bears at Bills — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -3.5 (open BUF -3.75)
Total51.5
Moneyline (CHI / BUF)+154 / -185
BUF implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (CHI — BUF)24.0 — 27.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bears and Bills this season

Games before Week 15. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.46
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.46

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 24.0 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 234 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 56 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 2 rush yds · 58 rec yds
Buffalo Bills · 27.5 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 245 pass yds · 31 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 85 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 53 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bears @ Bills, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule