Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT · Highmark Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 3.5-point favourite over Chicago Bears, with the game total at 51.5.

Moneylines sit at +154 for Chicago Bears and -185 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 62% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Chicago Bears and 27.5 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 223 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 64 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 243 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Bears at Bills — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -3.5
Total51.5
Moneyline (CHI / BUF)+154 / -185
BUF implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (CHI — BUF)24.0 — 27.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 24.0 proj pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 223 pass yds · 27 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 64 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Kyle Monangai (RB) — 39 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Buffalo Bills · 27.5 proj pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 243 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 73 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Khalil Shakir (WR) — 48 rec yds · 4.2 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule