Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · Highmark Stadium
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 5.5-point favourite over Detroit Lions, with the game total at 54.8.
Moneylines sit at +201 for Detroit Lions and -243 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 68% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.6 for Detroit Lions and 30.1 for Buffalo Bills.
The spread has moved from -3.2 to -5.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 52.5 to 54.8.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 246 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 103 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 245 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.
Final: Buffalo Bills won 41-31 (home, over).
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
ATS: home. Total: over.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -5.5 (open -3.25) |
| Total | 54.75 (open 52.5) |
| Moneyline (DET / BUF) | +201 / -243 |
| BUF implied win probability | 68% |
| Implied team totals (DET — BUF) | 24.6 — 30.1 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.