Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 11.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 47.5.
Moneylines sit at +455 for Miami Dolphins and -625 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 83% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 18 for Miami Dolphins and 29.5 for Buffalo Bills.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 213 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 75 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 241 passing yards and 33 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -11.5 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Moneyline (MIA / BUF) | +455 / -625 |
| BUF implied win probability | 83% |
| Implied team totals (MIA — BUF) | 18.0 — 29.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.