Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

Prediction: Bills 32, Dolphins 15 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 91% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Dolphins @ Bills, on one screen.

Dolphins15.0win 9%
Market-implied score
Bills31.5win 91%
SpreadBUF -16.5
Total46.5
Moneyline+925 / -1749
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Dolphins vs Bills prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 16.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 46.5.

Moneylines sit at +925 for Miami Dolphins and -1749 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 91% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 15 for Miami Dolphins and 31.5 for Buffalo Bills.

The spread has moved from BUF -14 to BUF -16.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 47.5 to 46.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 191 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 246 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 92 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Dolphins at Bills — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -16.5 (open BUF -14)
Total46.5 (open 47.5)
Moneyline (MIA / BUF)+925 / -1749
BUF implied win probability91%
Implied team totals (MIA — BUF)15.0 — 31.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Dolphins and Bills this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.47

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 15.0 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 191 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 59 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 46 rec yds · 3.6 rec
Buffalo Bills · 31.5 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 246 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 92 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 51 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Dolphins @ Bills, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Dolphins @ Bills matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 48°F, wind 17 mph from the SW, 29% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule